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Lay understanding of probability distributions

Goldstein, Daniel G.; Rothschild, David - In: Judgment and Decision Making 9 (2014) 1, pp. 1-14

How accurate are laypeople's intuitions about probability distributions of events? The economic and psychological … probability distributions. To establish a ground truth against which accuracy can be assessed, we control the information seen by …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010735458

Top scores are possible, bottom scores are certain (and middle scores are not worth mentioning): A pragmatic view of verbal probabilities

Juanchich, Marie; Teigen, Karl Halvor; Am\'elie Gourdon - In: Judgment and Decision Making 8 (2013) 3, pp. 345-364

not certain into numeric probability values. This probabilistic translation approach can be contrasted with a novel which …-outcome (WO) approach that focuses on the outcomes that people naturally associate with probability terms. The WO approach has … probability term and outcome was related to the association of scalar modifiers (i.e., it is certain that the battery will last at …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010661308

A cautionary note on global recalibration

Kadane, Joseph B.; Fischhoff, Baruch - In: Judgment and Decision Making 8 (2013) 1, pp. 25-28

We report a mathematical result that casts doubt on the possibility of recalibration of probabilities using calibration curves. We then discuss how to interpret this result in the light of behavioral research.

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010604786

The coexistence of overestimation and underweighting of rare events and the contingent recency effect

Barron, Greg; Yechiam, Eldad - In: Judgment and Decision Making 4 (2009) 6, pp. 447-460

Previous research demonstrates overestimation of rare events in judgment tasks, and underweighting of rare events in decisions from experience. The current paper presents three laboratory experiments and a field study that explore this pattern. The results suggest that the overestimation and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008578207

The role of representation in experience-based choice

Camilleri, Adrian R.; Newell, Ben R. - In: Judgment and Decision Making 4 (2009) 7, pp. 518-529

derive from a process that does not explicitly use probability information. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008497636

Numeracy, frequency, and Bayesian reasoning

Chapman, Gretchen B.; Liu, Jingjing - In: Judgment and Decision Making 4 (2009) 1, pp. 34-40

Previous research has demonstrated that Bayesian reasoning performance is improved if uncertainty information is presented as natural frequencies rather than single-event probabilities. A questionnaire study of 342 college students replicated this effect but also found that the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005773096