It is well known that an unexpected level change in time series can cause persistent forecasting errors, depending on the change size and the underlying time series process. This relationship is demonstrated particularly with macroeconomic and financial time series. Forecasting literature...

The effect of sticker shock, price difference between reference price and shelf price, is crucial in forecasting consumer demand. In marketing literature, several papers have modeled the impact of reference prices on brand choice via the sticker shock formulation. However, the effect of sticker...