In this paper we develop a business cycle measure that can be shown to have excellent ex-ante forecasting properties for GDP growth. For identifying business cycle movements, we use a semantic approach. We infer nine different states of the economy directly from firms' responses in business...

Volk und Stände der Schweiz beschlossen 2001, den absoluten Schuldenstand des Staates im Konjunkturverlauf zu begrenzen. Damit hat die Eidgenossenschaft einen Weg eingeschlagen, der sich von dem der Mitglieder des europäischen Stabilitätspaktes unterscheidet. Diese halten eine positive...

The former German chancellor Helmut Schmidt holds that despite the huge transfers from West to East Germany the East German economy does not take off as it was widely expected. We argue it is not despite these transfers but because of them. Building on the common features of the extension of the...