In this paper we develop a business cycle measure that can be shown to have excellent ex-ante forecasting properties for GDP growth. For identifying business cycle movements, we use a semantic approach. We infer nine different states of the economy directly from firms' responses in business...

The concept of cointegration (see e.g., Engle and Granger, 1987; Johansen, 1988) has extensively been used to model equilibrium relationships (see e.g., Johansen and Juselius, 1990; Ericsson, 1998). The links between economic and econometric concepts are now well understood and they have become part of...

We investigate how firms' market power affects the price level. In our small macro-model we show, that firms - in addition to hypothesised structural mark-up pricing power - may take advantage of favourable business cycle fluctuations. The paper provides empirical evidence for both these...