This paper attempts to find an aggregate leading indicator to predict the spreads observed for high-yield (HY) bond indices. Using a vector error correction (VEC) specification for quarterly data, we establish a long-term equilibrium relationship between the HY market spreads and its...

This paper attempts to find an aggregate leading indicator to predict the spreads observed for high-yield (HY) bond indices. Using a vector error correction (VEC) specification for quarterly data, we establish a long-term equilibrium relationship between the HY market spreads and its...

The paper investigates the nexus between inventory investment and the change in aggregate production for 29 European countries over the period 2000-2009. A special interest is taken in the Great Recession of 2008/09. For most countries, a fairly uniform pattern emerges. Inventory investment is...

In their introduction to the special issue of the Review of Economic Dynamics on Great Depressions of the 20th Century (Vol. 5, 2002), Timothy J. Kehoe and Edward C. Prescott argue that in the last few years great depressions have hit two rich countries: New Zealand and Switzerland. We briefly...

We examine the relationship between capitalism and income inequality for a large sample of countries using an adjusted economic freedom index as proxy for capitalism and Gini coefficients based on gross-income as proxy for income inequality. Our results suggest that there is no robust...

Does increased policy uncertainty dampen investment plans of firms? We provide direct evidence on this question by examining the effects of an unexpectedly accepted and farreaching referendum in Switzerland in February 2014. The vote has put several economically relevant agreements between...

Using a panel fixed effects model for a sample of 121 countries covering 1975-2005, we examine how financial development, financial liberalization and banking crises are related to income inequality. In contrast with most previous work, our results suggest that all finance variables increase...

Michael Grossman's human capital model of the demand for health has been argued to be one of the major achievements in theoretical health economics. Attempts to test this model empirically have been sparse, however, and with mixed results. These attempts so far relied on using - mostly...

In this paper we present and describe the revised version of the KOF Globalisation Index, a composite index measuring globalisation for every country in the world along the economic, social and political dimension. The original index was introduced by Dreher (2006) and updated in Dreher et al....

Economists and central bankers nowadays believe that forward guidance has become more important in a world in which key interest rates have hit their effective lower bounds (ELB). In case of the European Central Bank (ECB), this should have increased the informational content of the introductory...