We propose a Bayesian optimal filtering setup for improving out-of-sample forecasting performance when using volatile high frequency data with long lag structure for forecasting low-frequency data. We test this setup by using real-time Swiss construction investment and construction permit data....

In response to mounting international pressure to reform the ring-fenced elements of its tax system, the Swiss government has put forward a comprehensive tax reform package. The proposal comprises the introduction of a license box, a substantial reduction in cantonal pro t tax rates, and an...

In this paper we extend the targeted-regressor approach suggested in Bai and Ng (2008) for variables sampled at the same frequency to mixed-frequency data. Our MIDASSO approach is a combination of the unrestricted MIxed-frequency DAta-Sampling approach (U-MIDAS) (see Foroni et al., 2015; Castle et...

This paper documents nominal stability in Switzerland from 1805 to 2013 using a data set on annual price, wage and nominal GDP changes. The trends of these indicators are estimated by an unobserved-components stochastic-volatility model in order to control for short-term fluctuations and...

In response to the increasing international pressure on Switzerland to reform the ring-fenced elements in its tax system, the Swiss Government has put forward a comprehensive tax reform package. The proposal comprises, among other things, the introduction of a licence box, a substantial...

The aim of this paper is, firstly, to contribute to the understanding of innovation patterns in services. To this end, firms which are similar in terms of a large set of innovation indicators were grouped into clusters. For the Swiss case, it was possible to identify five clusters which exhibit...

This paper conducts an extensive forecasting study on 13,118 time series measuring Swiss goods exports, grouped hierarchically by export destination and product category. We apply existing state of the art methods in forecast reconciliation and introduce a novel Bayesian reconciliation...