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Discretionary fiscal policy : the case of Switzerland

Frick, Andres; Graff, Michael; Hartwig, Jochen; … - 2010

Towards the end of 2009, the world economy was recovering from its deepest recession since the end of World War II. Most countries around the world took resort to fiscal policy in order to foster this recovery. In this paper, we first discuss the pros and cons of discretionary fiscal policy from...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008729237

Quantitative Analyse der Auswirkungen wirtschaftspolitischer Massnahmen auf die Einkommensverteilung und das "neue magische Viereck" in der Schweiz

Hartwig, Jochen (contributor) - 2004 - [Elektronische Ressource]

Macroeconometric policy simulation models allow for an analysis, and, above all, for a quantification of the effects different economic policies have on the various variables that represent the economy. Despite the seminal "Lucas critique" levelled against them, these models are still widely...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002202977

Forecasting Swiss exports using Bayesian forecast reconciliation

Eckert, Florian; Hyndman, Rob J.; Panagiotelis, Anastasios - 2019

This paper conducts an extensive forecasting study on 13,118 time series measuring Swiss goods exports, grouped …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012058388

Recessions as breadwinner for forecasters state-dependent evaluation of predictive ability : evidence from big macroeconomic US data

Siliverstovs, Boriss; Wochner, Daniel - 2019

forecasting experiment is based on a novel big macroeconomic dataset (FRED-QD) comprising over 200 quarterly indicators for almost …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012117679

Finance and income inequality : a review and new evidence

Haan, Jakob de; Sturm, Jan-Egbert - 2016

Using a panel fixed effects model for a sample of 121 countries covering 1975 -2005, we examine how financial development, financial liberalization and banking crises are related to income inequality. In contrast with most previous work, our results suggest that all finance variables increase...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011537295

Empirical calibration of adaptive learning

Berardi, Michele; Galimberti, Jaqueson K. - 2015

performance in forecasting macroeconomic variables and in matching survey forecasts. Our results indicate a great degree of …. Calibrations to match survey forecasts are found to be lower than those derived according to the forecasting performance …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011316387

Forecasting Chinese GDP growth with mixed frequency data : which indicators to look at?

Mikosch, Heiner; Zhang, Ying - 2014 - First version: December 01, 2013, This version: July 10, 2014

indicators for forecasting quarterly Chinese GDP growth. We iterate the evaluation over forecast horizons from 370 days to 1 day … 2009. Industrial production can be quite valuable for now- or even forecasting, but only if it is released shortly after … manufacturing purchasing managers' index of the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics help much for now- or forecasting. Our results …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010376402

A note on the representative adaptive learning algorithm

Berardi, Michele; Galimberti, Jaqueson K. - 2014

best overall performance both in terms of forecasting accuracy and in matching (future) survey forecasts. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010344932

Taming volatile high frequency data with long lag structure : an optimal filtering approach for forecasting

Drechsel, Dirk; Neuwirth, Stefan - 2016 - Preliminary version

We propose a Bayesian optimal filtering setup for improving out-of-sample forecasting performance when using volatile … high frequency data with long lag structure for forecasting low-frequency data. We test this setup by using real-time Swiss … indicator series for forecasting. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011490594

Short-term forecasting with mixed-frequency data : a MIDASSO approach

Siliverstovs, Boriss - 2015

regression used in Bai and Ng (2008), called the elastic net (Zou and Hastie, 2005). We illustrate our approach by forecasting …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010498420