Using daily Bundesbank foreign exchange market intervention data, we employ a multinomial logit approach to estimate an intervention reaction function for the German Central Bank using options implied volatilities and the deviation of the exchange rate from its target level as explanatory...

The paper investigates a set of possible leading indicators for Euroland's business cycle using aggregated quarterly data. The theoretical plausibility, the behavior at business cycle turning points and the mean leads are analyzed. Furthermore, evidence from cross-correlations and...

Probit models are employed to evaluate leading indicators for Germany's recessions. The predictive power of leading indicators is found to be lower than assumed in previous studies. Although, monetary variables provide the best predictive power for recessions, survey data and order inflows show...

This paper elaborates on the link between financial market volatility and real economic activity. Using monthly data for Germany from 1968 to 1998, we specify GARCH models to capture the variability of stock market prices, of the real exchange rate, and of a long-term and of a short-term rate of...

The paper presents some stylized facts of Euroland's business cycle using aggregated data. The main results are: The determination of turning points in Euroland's business cycle is not very sensitive to the detrending method used, although the level of the recent output gap depends on it....

Using monthly data for Germany from 1968 through 1998, the relationship betweenfluctuations of prices in financial markets and inflation is analyzed. The results of Granger-causality tests reveal that stock market has no predictive power volatility for inflation uncertainty, et vice versa....

The flight and expulsion of Germans from Eastern Europe during and after World War II constitutes one of the largest forced population movements in history. We analyze the economic integration of these forced migrants and their offspring in West Germany. The empirical results suggest that even a...

The process of European integration has gained considerable momentum during the past couple of years. This paper provides an assessment of the degree of integration of both the accession states of central and eastern Europe and of the pre-ins for monetary union with respect to Germany. Using...

The paper discusses some widely used methods for estimating output gaps based on aggregated datafor the Euro-zone. Though these methods exhibit some common features, an empirical comparisondemonstrates that the various techniques differ substantially. In particular, the correlation of output...

The paper discusses some widely used methods for estimating output gaps based on aggregated data for the eurozone. Though these methods exhibit some common features, an empirical comparison demonstrates that the various techniques differ substantially. In particular, the correlation of output...