This paper analyzes the factors underlying the weakness of the euro. For this purpose, the framework advocated by Clarida and Gali (1994) is used. Within this model, three structural shocks drive the dynamics of the endogenous variables: aggregate supply shocks, aggregate spending shocks, and...

Using daily Bundesbank foreign exchange market intervention data, we employ a multinomial logit approach to estimate an intervention reaction function for the German Central Bank using options implied volatilities and the deviation of the exchange rate from its target level as explanatory...

Als Harry Johnson vor genau 20 Jahren sein Plädoyer für flexible Wechselkurse hielt, waren die Weichen zur Auflösung des Festkurssystems von Bretton Woods bereits gestellt. Die zu Beginn der fünfziger Jahre vielbeklagte Dollarknappheit war längst einer Dollarflut gewichen. Das...

Nach dem Börsenkrach vom Oktober 1987 war vielfach befürchtet worden, daß mit einer weltweiten Rezession ähnlich wie Anfang der 30er Jahre - zu rechnen sei. Diese Befürchtungen erwiesen sich aber als falsch. Denn in vielen Industrieländern erzielte das Bruttosozialprodukt 1988 die...

Which factors determine the prices of West German expörts and imports? To answer this question, two single equation error correction modeis are applied. Export prices turn out to be mainly determined by prices for concurrent goods proiduced abroad, whereas unit labor costs and the nominal...

Changes in exchange rates have become a prominent issue in Germany and Japan - due to the enormous appreciation of the Deutschmark and the Yen. Conventional wisdom suggests that economic activity will be negatively affected if a currency is going through a phase of appreciation. The paper...

This paper elaborates on the link between financial market volatility and real economic activity. Using monthly data for Germany from 1968 to 1998, we specify GARCH models to capture the variability of stock market prices, of the real exchange rate, and of a long-term and of a short-term rate of...

A contingent claims valuation model which allows to highlight the implications of program trading in spot markets for the pricing of European-style foreign currency options and for the volatility strike structure implicit in these contracts is devoloped. The curvature of the volatility strike...

The effectiveness of the foreign exchange market interventions conducted by the Deutsche Bundesbank during the Louvre period to alter either the level or the volatility of the $/DM spot rate is examined. Volatility quotes implicit in foreign currency options are employed to recover the impact of...