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Siebert, Horst - 2004

This paper analyzes Germany's fiscal policy position. Half of GDP passes through the hands of government, a high debt to GDP ratio limits the maneuvering, and the revenue sharing mechanism prevents a competitive federalism. Most importantly for the future, the federal finance minister has to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010265427

Identification of animal spirits in a bounded rationality model: An application to the euro area

Jang, Tae-Seok; Sacht, Stephen - 2012

In this paper we empirically examine a heterogenous bounded rationality version of a hybrid New-Keynesian model. The model is estimated via the simulated method of moments using Euro Area data from 1975Q1 to 2009Q4. It is generally assumed that agents' beliefs display waves of optimism and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010290034

Is there a short-run case for protectionism? Trade policy and the business cycle

Larch, Mario; Lechthaler, Wolfgang - 2011

Recently, the world economy has seen its greatest down turn since World War II. Although not as bad as during the Great Depression, there was still a worrisome increase in protectionist measures, in an attempt to mitigate the economic downturn. Protectionism can have many different faces. It can...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010285719

Is forward-looking inflation targeting destabilizing? The role of policy's response to current output under endogenous investment

Huang, Kevin X. D.; Meng, Qinglai - 2007

in response solely to future inflation induce real indeterminacy of equilibrium. Applying the Samuelson … stickiness or letting policy respond also to current output may help ensure a unique equilibrium. We find that the first channel … incorporated, even a tiny response of policy to current output can render equilibrium determinate for a wide range of response of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260586

Trend growth, unemployment and optimal monetary policy

Lechthaler, Wolfgang; Tesfaselassie, Mewael - 2015

We analyze the implications of changes in the trend growth rate for optimal monetary policy in the presence of search and matching unemployment. We show that trend growth in itself does not generate a trade-off for the monetary authority, but that it interacts importantly with the inefficiencies...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011301390

Protectionism in a liquidity trap

Lechthaler, Wolfgang - 2016

This paper studies the effects of protectionism as a business cycle instrument. In normal times, protectionism reduces international trade, distorts production and reduces output. However, in a liquidity trap protectionism lowers the real interest rate because inflation goes up while the nominal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011490262

Immigrating into a recession: Evidence from family migrants to the U.S.

Barsbai, Toman; Steinmayr, Andreas; Winter, Christoph - 2023

We analyze the impact of economic conditions at arrival on the economic integration of family-sponsored migrants in the U.S. A one pp higher unemployment rate at arrival decreases annual wage income by four percent in the short run and two percent in the longer run. The loss in wage income...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013556515

Uncertainty shocks, banking frictions, and economic activity

Bonciani, Dario; van Roye, Björn - 2013

Equilibrium (DSGE) model with heterogenous agents and a stylized banking sector. We show that frictions in credit supply amplify …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010316029

International transmission of financial stress: Evidence from a GVAR

Dovern, Jonas; van Roye, Björn - 2013

We analyze the international transmission of financial stress and its effects on economic activity. We construct country specific monthly financial stress indexes (FSI) using dynamic factor models from 1970 until 2012 for 20 countries. We show that there is a strong co-movement of the FSI during...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010316033

Eingleichungsmodelle zur Prognose des deutschen Außenhandels

Strauß, Hubert - 2000

Sowohl die deutschen Exporte als auch die Importe von Waren und Dienstleistungen weisen im Zeitraum 1974?1999 bezüglich der zugrunde liegenden Aktivitätsvariablen eine langfristige Elastizität von jeweils rund 1,5 auf. Die Langfristelastizität in Bezug auf den realen Außenwert der D-Mark...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260427