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Siebert, Horst - 2004

This paper analyzes Germany's fiscal policy position. Half of GDP passes through the hands of government, a high debt to GDP ratio limits the maneuvering, and the revenue sharing mechanism prevents a competitive federalism. Most importantly for the future, the federal finance minister has to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010265427

Identification of animal spirits in a bounded rationality model: An application to the euro area

Jang, Tae-Seok; Sacht, Stephen - 2012

In this paper we empirically examine a heterogenous bounded rationality version of a hybrid New-Keynesian model. The model is estimated via the simulated method of moments using Euro Area data from 1975Q1 to 2009Q4. It is generally assumed that agents' beliefs display waves of optimism and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010290034

Is there a short-run case for protectionism? Trade policy and the business cycle

Larch, Mario; Lechthaler, Wolfgang - 2011

Recently, the world economy has seen its greatest down turn since World War II. Although not as bad as during the Great Depression, there was still a worrisome increase in protectionist measures, in an attempt to mitigate the economic downturn. Protectionism can have many different faces. It can...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010285719

Trend growth, unemployment and optimal monetary policy

Lechthaler, Wolfgang; Tesfaselassie, Mewael - 2015

We analyze the implications of changes in the trend growth rate for optimal monetary policy in the presence of search and matching unemployment. We show that trend growth in itself does not generate a trade-off for the monetary authority, but that it interacts importantly with the inefficiencies...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011301390

Protectionism in a liquidity trap

Lechthaler, Wolfgang - 2016

This paper studies the effects of protectionism as a business cycle instrument. In normal times, protectionism reduces international trade, distorts production and reduces output. However, in a liquidity trap protectionism lowers the real interest rate because inflation goes up while the nominal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011490262

Is forward-looking inflation targeting destabilizing? The role of policy's response to current output under endogenous investment

Huang, Kevin X. D.; Meng, Qinglai - 2007

in response solely to future inflation induce real indeterminacy of equilibrium. Applying the Samuelson … stickiness or letting policy respond also to current output may help ensure a unique equilibrium. We find that the first channel … incorporated, even a tiny response of policy to current output can render equilibrium determinate for a wide range of response of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260586

Optimal monetary policy in response to shifts in the beveridge curve

Mileva, Mariya - 2013

I build a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with search and matching frictions in the labor market and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010292633

Does short-time work save jobs? A business cycle analysis

Balleer, Almut; Gehrke, Britta; Lechthaler, Wolfgang; … - 2013

This paper analyzes the effects of short-time work (i.e., government subsidized working time reductions) on unemployment and output fluctuations. The central question is whether the rule based component (i.e., the existence of the institution short-time work) and the discretionary component...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010294349

Forecasting euro area recessions in real-time

Pirschel, Inske - 2016

I present evidence that the linear mixed-frequency Bayesian VAR provides very sharp and well calibrated monthly real-time recession probabilities for the euro area for the period from 2004 until 2013. The model outperforms not only the univariate regime-switching models for a number of hard and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011416459

Monetary aggregates to improve early output gap estimates in the euro area: An empirical assessment

Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens - 2014

Output gap estimates at the current edge are subject to severe revisions. This study analyzes whether monetary aggregates can be used to improve the reliability of early output gap estimates as proposed by several theoretical models. A real-time experiment shows that real M1 can improve output...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010332852

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