Showing 1 - 10 of 158
The construction bust which accompanied the Great Recession, and the accompanying need to shift workers across sectors, have provoked a discussion about mismatch and the Beveridge Curve, alongside a discussion about firm-level dispersion. These discussions echo an ongoing discussion about the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010368449
This note shows that German real GDP follows a trend-stationary process. Both tests which have trend-stationarity as the alternative hypothesis as well as tests that have it under the null hypothesis prefer the trend-stationary model. Explicit consideration of breaks in the trend is not...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010265453
In this paper we analyze the power of various indicators to predict growth rates of aggregate production using real-time data. In addition, we assess their ability to predict turning points of the economy. We consider four groups of indicators: survey data, composite indicators, real economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010273164
This paper outlines a simple regression-based method to decompose the variance of an aggregate time series into the variance of its components, which is then applied to measure the relative contributions of productivity, hours per worker, and employment to cyclical output growth across a panel...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274432
This paper elaborates on the link between financial market volatility and real economic activity. Using monthly data for Germany from 1968 to 1998, we specify GARCH models to capture the variability of stock market prices, of the real exchange rate, and of a long-term and of a short-term rate of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010275423
Bivariate SVAR models employing long-run identifying restrictions are often used to investigate the source of business cycle fluctuations. Their advantage is the simplicity in use and interpretation. However, their low dimension may also lead to a failure of the identification procedure, with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276923
The process of European integration has gained considerable momentum during the past couple of years. This paper provides an assessment of the degree of integration of both the accession states of central and eastern Europe and of the pre-ins for monetary union with respect to Germany. Using...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010285355
rate and the unemployment rate? In the model, fluctuations are prominently driven by productivity shocks which are commonly … replicates the conditional volatility of job finding and unemployment, so that the Shimer critique does not apply. Instead the … shocks lead to a fall in job finding and an increase in unemployment thereby opposing the dynamics in the standard model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010265223
This paper elaborates on the relative importance of sectoral shocks for real economic activity in Germany. Implications of multisectoral real business cycle models are examined by resorting to testing techniques based on stock market returns. The empirical evidence is obtained by calculating...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260560
, unemployment rate) and the assumption of a zero discount rate. We show that when the discount rate is positive in a general …-price staggering models can generate both substantial inflation persistence and a nonzero inflation-unemployment tradeoff in the long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010273181