This paper shows that in inflation in industrialized countries is largely a global phenomenon. First, inflations of (22) OECD countries have a common factor that alone accounts for nearly 70% of their variance. This large variance share that is associated to Global Inflation is not only due to...

A large share of global trade being priced and invoiced primarily in US dollar rather than the exporter's or the importer's currency has important implications for the transmission of shocks. We introduce this "dominant currency pricing" (DCP) into ECB-Global, the ECB's macroeconomic model for...

I analyze spillover effects from Euro area monetary policy shocks to thirteen EU countries outside the Euro area, i.e., ten countries from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and three Western EU members. The analysis is based on a FAVAR model with two blocks which exploits a large cross-country...

We analyze determinacy and stability under learning (E-stability) of rational expectations equilibria in the Blanchard and Galí (2006, 2008) New-Keynesian model of inflation and unemployment, where labor market frictions due to costs of hiring workers play an important role. We derive results...

In the recent New Keynesian literature a standard assumption is that the price for which an intermediate good is sold to the final good firm is equal to the marginal costs of the intermediate good firm. However, there is empirical evidence that this need not to hold. This paper introduces price...

Conjectures about inflation expectations are inextricably linked to our understanding of the relationship between the real and monetary sides of the economy; yet, direct empirical research on the matter has been scarce at best. This paper therefore examines the empirical properties of inflation...

Recent research has shown that economic conditions have an important effect on real commodity prices. We quantify the contribution of fluctuations in inflation to this particular link. In the data, a temporary rise in inflation causes real commodity prices to rise, as does a rise in trend...

This paper estimates a series of shocks to hit the US economy during the Great Depression, using a New Keynesian model with unemployment and bargaining frictions. Shocks to long-run inflation expectations appear to account for much of the cyclical behavior of employment, while an increase in...

This paper compares the welfare effects of anticipated and unanticipated cost-push shocks within the canonical New Keynesian model with optimal monetary policy. We find that, for empirically plausible degrees of nominal rigidity, the anticipation of a future cost-push shock leads to a higher...

This paper analyzes the cost of disinflation under real wage rigidities in a micro-founded New Keynesian model. Unlike Blanchard and Galí (2007) who carried out a similar analysis in a linearized framework, we take non- linearities into account. We show that the results change dramatically,...