This paper presents a simple experiment on how laypeople form macroeconomic expectations. Subjects have to forecast … forecasts. It turns out that the availability of historical data has a dominant impact on expectations and wipes out the …

Conjectures about inflation expectations are inextricably linked to our understanding of the relationship between the … therefore examines the empirical properties of inflation expectations data constructed on the basis of both qualitative and … by the data, a finding which in turn leads us to reject the rational expectations hypothesis and casts doubt on the New …

incomplete information. We solve the model taking full account of the infinite regress of expectations, and show that the …

with unemployment and bargaining frictions. Shocks to long-run inflation expectations appear to account for much of the … expectations; in fact, conditions were deflationary all throughout the 1930s in spite of high money growth and low interest rates …

technologies depend exclusively on countries' expectations about future adoption. This possibility calls for a more prominent role …

technology penetration in the future - in extreme cases, expectations prevail over policy. This feature highlights the danger of …

propose genetic algorithms as a model for individual expectations to explain aggregate market phenomena. The model explains …

We analyze determinacy and stability under learning (E-stability) of rational expectations equilibria in the Blanchard …-stability shrinks. These rules perform worse according to these two dimensions when hiring costs go up. Finally, under expectations …