In early 2020, the disease Covid-19 caused a drastic lockdown of the Chinese economy. We use a quantitative trade model with input-output linkages to gauge the effects of this adverse supply shock in China on the global economy through international trade and global value chains (GVCs). We find...

With ever-increasing political tensions between China and Russia on one side and the EU and the US on the other, it only seems a matter of time until protectionist policies cause a decoupling of global value chains. This paper uses a computable general equilibrium trade model calibrated with the...

In August 2014, the Russian Federation implemented an embargo on select food and agricultural imports from Western countries in response to the economic sanctions. The measure was designed to harm producers in United States, European Union, Norway, Ukraine, along other Western countries. In this...

This paper investigates Samuelson's (JEP, 2004) argument that technical progress of the trade partner may hurt the home country. We illustrate this prospect in a simple Ricardian model for sitations with outward knowledge spillovers. Within this framework Samuelson's Act II effects may occur....

This paper examines the impact of coalitions on the economic costs of the 2012 Iran and 2014 Russia sanctions. By estimating and simulating a quantitative general equilibrium trade model under different coalition set-ups, we (i) dissect welfare losses for sanction-senders and target; (ii)...

This paper studies the impact of exogenous export demand shocks on firms' dividend policy using firm specific real exchange rate variation as instrumental variable. IV exclusion restriction is plausibly satisfied because real exchange rate shocks were unanticipated -partly explained because of...

The extensive margin of bilateral trade exhibits a high level of persistence that cannot be explained by geography or trade policy. We combine a heterogeneous firms model of international trade with bounded productivity with features from the firm dynamics literature to derive expressions for an...

This paper analyses the causes of the precipitous fall in trade among the twelve CIS countries since 1990; points out the implications for industrial restructuring; and discusses the policy options for regional reintegration. The main finding is that the decline in intra-C!S trade was initiated by...

This paper investigates which policies CIS countries need to reform when they accede to GATT. The objectives to be pursued through trade policy (e.g. raising fiscal revenue, protecting industries, regional integration) must be defined clearly when tariff levels are bound. Some streamlining (e.g....

The analysis of Baltic regional trade patterns reveals that during the nineties the Baltic states made significant progress to integrate into the Western European division of labour although a significant share of (transit) trade with Russia remained. In view of this development, history seems...