This article investigates the statistical and economic implications of adaptive forecasting of exchange rates with panel data and alternative predictors. The candidate exchange rate predictors are drawn from (i) macroeconomic ‘fundamentals’, (ii) return/volatility of asset markets and (iii)...

We examine the performance of volatility models that incorporate features such as long (short) memory, regime-switching and multifractality along with two competing distributional assumptions of the error component, i.e. Normal vs Student-t. Our precise contribution is twofold. First, we...

We study the well-known multiplicative Lognormal cascade process in which the multiplication of Gaussian and Lognormally distributed random variables yields time series with intermittent bursts of activity. Due to the non-stationarity of this process and the combinatorial nature of such a...

The volatility specification of the Markov-switching Multifractal (MSM) model is proposed as an alternative mechanism for realized volatility (RV). We estimate the RV-MSM model via Generalized Method of Moments and perform forecasting by means of best linear forecasts derived via the...

This chapter provides an overview over the recently developed so called multifractal (MF) approach for modeling and forecasting volatility. We outline the genesis of this approach from similar models of turbulent flows in statistical physics and provide details on different specifications of...

If the technological revolution which has taken place over the past decades has lowered information costs and if information costs increase in distance, distance should – ceteris paribus – become less important in determining international bank lending. We are using a dataset on assets...

Globalization seems to have diminished the importance of geographical distance. However, empirical studies find that distance coefficients in gravity equations change little over time. This paper argues that changes in distance coefficients do not carry much information on changes in distance...

This paper provides a computable general equilibrium analysis of the medium to long-run impact of FDI inflows on poverty and income distribution in Bolivia. The CGE analysis addresses several important transmission channels which have been neglected in the empirical literature by (i)...

The paper analyzes the effects of increasing capital market integration on production and market structures, trade and capital flows as well as national and global welfare. In order to facilitate the analysis of the integration process, three stages of capital market integration are defined....

Similar to Chile in the 1990s, Slovenia has introduced an unremunerated reserve requirement (URR) on financial credits in 1995. We find that the URR has not been effective in reducing overall inflows of foreign capital. Hence, the gain in monetary autonomy has been limited. While the overall...