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The link of the monetary indicator to future inflation in the euro area : a simulation experiment

Gottschalk, Jan; Stolz, Stéphanie Marie - 2001

We examine the indicator property of the monetary indicator for inflation. Using a P*-model, Svensson shows theoretically in a recent paper that the relationship between these two variables is rather tenuous. The present study employs empirical evidence on the relations in his model to quantify...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011476494

Trade effects of monetary integration in large, mature economies : a primer on the European Monetary Union

Vinhas de Souza, Lúcio - 2002

The aim of this paper is to estimate the trade gains arising from the constitution ofa currency union for a set of economically large, developed nations who create a monetary union as a deliberate economic policy action: namely, for the members of the euro area. With a 1980-2001 sample, no...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011472291

Measures of the output gap in the Euro-zone : an empirical assessment of selected methods

Chagny, Odile; Döpke, Jörg - 2001

die Euro-Zone. Obwohl die Methoden einige wichtige gemeinsame Eigenschaften aufweisen, zeigen sie auch erhebliche …The paper discusses some widely used methods for estimating output gaps based on aggregated data for the eurozone … methods commonly used have only limited information content for inflation forecasting in the euro-zone. Conclusions for …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011473858

Monetary conditions in the euro area : useful indicators of aggregate demand conditions?

Gottschalk, Jan - 2001

This paper reviews the usefulness of monetary conditions in the euro area as leading indicators for aggregate demand conditions. Monetary conditions are measured with the MCI concept proposed by the Bank of Canada, and with the yield spread. A central result is that causality runs in both ways...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011474154

Fiscal consolidation in Europe : pre- and post-Maastricht

Kamps, Christophe - 2001

Based on a panel data model this paper investigates whether the effects of fiscal policy on national saving in Europe have changed after the Maastricht Treaty came into force. Recently Giavazzi, Jappelli and Pagano (2000) found evidence that national saving responds nonlinearly to fiscal policy...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011474247

Measuring expected inflation and the ex-ante real interest rate in the euro area using structural vector autoregressions

Gottschalk, Jan - 2001

In this paper, the structural vector autoregression methodology is used to decompose the euro area nominal short-term interest rate into an expected inflation and an ex-ante real interest rate component. The latter may be a useful indicator of the monetary policy stance of the ECB. To this end,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011476385

Predicting inflation in Euroland : the Pstar approach

Scheide, Joachim; Trabandt, Mathias - 2000

Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. While this statement is widely accepted in terms of a long-run relationship, the quantity theory has been made operational also for the short-run dynamics of inflation by so-called Pstar models. An error correction model with quarterly data for the Euro Area...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011477146

Weshalb die Europäische Währungsunion den Stabilitätspakt braucht

Siebert, Horst - 2002

Der Stabilitätspakt hat die Aufgabe, der nationalen Finanzpolitik bei der Verschuldung die Hände zu binden und damit den Euro als vergemeinschaftete Währung abzusichern. Denn ob Geld stabil ist, hängt auch davon ab, wie solide die Staatsfinanzen sind. Den Pakt aufzuweichen wird später einen...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011495492

Real and financial integration in Europe : evidence for the accession states and for the pre-ins

Buch, Claudia M.; Döpke, Jörg - 1999

The process of European integration has gained considerable momentum during the past couple of years. This paper provides an assessment of the degree of integration of both the accession states of central and eastern Europe and of the pre-ins for monetary union with respect to Germany. Using...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011474986

Assessing the advantages of EMU-enlargement for the EU and the accession countries : a comparative indicator approach

Schweickert, Rainer - 2001

The paper takes into account both the concerns of the EU, arguing that convergence is incomplete, and the demands from accession countries, claiming that monetary integration is optimal. Indicators are developed which measure convergence and optimality in comparison with a reference group of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011490871