We develop a simple methodology to estimate monthly aggregate supply and demand conditions from bilateral international trade data for about 180 countries and 40 years. We apply our method to measure the short-run effects of natural disasters. In line with theoretical considerations, we find...

The paper discusses the relevance of past concerns about trade and foreign direct investment diversion to the detriment of Asian suppliers and hosts as a result of EU integration deepening and widening in the nineties. Based on recent empirical evidence, these concerns are rejected. As concerns...

Economic sanctions are a frequent instrument of foreign policy. In a diplomatic conflict, they aim to elicit a change in the policies of foreign governments by damaging their economy. However, sanctions are not costless for the sending economy, where domestic firms involved in business with the...

This paper evaluates firms' exporting responses to BRI and considers their heterogeneity in ownership types, product types, regional origin and trade mode. This is done by analyzing firm-product-destination level customs data from 2011 to 2015 in a gravity model framework. Our empirical results...

Economic sanctions are a frequently used tool of foreign policy. Constraining trade flows towards or from the target country is supposed to coerce its government into changing certain policies. However, sanctions constitute an obstacle to trade, thereby affecting flows of all countries,...

Die neue Welle des Regionalismus in Lateinamerika bietet mehr als alten Wein in neuen Schläuchen. Dennoch drohen hohe Erwartungen enttäuscht zu werden, die in die regionale Integration gesetzt werden. Die Entwicklung der ausländischen Direktinvestitionen in Lateinamerika in den neunziger...

Considering that primary commodity dependence continues to be a major problem of various lower income countries, we analyze whether Aid for Trade (AfT) has helped recipient countries upgrade and diversify their exports. Estimating an asymmetric and aggregated gravity model, we find that AfT has...

The analysis of Baltic trade statistics and gravity estimates reveal that Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have rapidly integrated into the international division of labour with a distinct EU focus. The Baltic States have taken a road towards the EU common market which pays particular attention to...

We estimate CO2 implicitly contained in traded commodities based on the GTAP 7 data: While net carbon imports into the industrialized countries amount to 15% of their total emissions, net carbon exports of the developing countries amount to 12% of their total emissions, and net carbon exports of...

Russia and China are assumed to challenge democratization and to promote autocracy. In a first step, we analyze Central Asia as the most-likely case, considering both Russia and China as relevant external actors. We develop a concept for our analysis based on the different strategies of Russia...