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Relative forecasting performance of volatility models : Monte Carlo evidence

Lux, Thomas; Morales-Arias, Leonardo - 2010

A Monte Carlo (MC) experiment is conducted to study the forecasting performance of a variety of volatility models under alternative data generating processes (DGPs). The models included in the MC study are the (Fractionally Integrated) Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003932329

Parameter estimation and forecasting for multiplicative lognormal cascades

Leövey, Andrés E.; Lux, Thomas - 2011

We study the well-known multiplicative Lognormal cascade process in which the multiplication of Gaussian and Lognormally distributed random variables yields time series with intermittent bursts of activity. Due to the non-stationarity of this process and the combinatorial nature of such a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009389845

Extreme value theory as a theoretical background for power law behavior

Alfarano, Simone; Lux, Thomas - 2010

theory, which provide a statistical justification for the emergence of power laws as limiting behavior for extreme … fluctuations. The remarkable generality of the theory allows to abstract from the details of the system under investigation, and … therefore allows its application in many diverse fields. Moreover, this theory offers new powerful techniques for the estimation …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008654245

Switching rates and the asymptotic behavior of herding models

Irle, Albrecht; Kauschke, Jonas; Lux, Thomas; … - 2010

Markov chains have experienced a surge of economic interest in the form of behavioral agent-based models that aim at explaining the statistical regularities of financial returns. We review some of the relevant mathematical facts and show how they apply to agent-based herding models, with the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003932610

A Markov-switching multifractal approach to forecasting realized volatility

Lux, Thomas; Morales-Arias, Leonardo; Sattarhoff, Cristina - 2011

The volatility specification of the Markov-switching Multifractal (MSM) model is proposed as an alternative mechanism for realized volatility (RV). We estimate the RV-MSM model via Generalized Method of Moments and perform forecasting by means of best linear forecasts derived via the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009314521

Multifractal models in finance : their origin, properties, and applications

Segnon, Mawuli; Lux, Thomas - 2013

This chapter provides an overview over the recently developed so called multifractal (MF) approach for modeling and forecasting volatility. We outline the genesis of this approach from similar models of turbulent flows in statistical physics and provide details on different specifications of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009778581

On assortative and disassortative mixing in scale-free networks : the case of interbank credit networks

Fricke, Daniel; Finger, Karl; Lux, Thomas - 2013

Networks constructed from credit relationships in the interbank market have been found to exhibit disassortative mixing together with a scale-free degree distribution, in contrast to most social networks that are assortative and not necessarily scale-free. This provokes the question whether...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009702869

A model of the topology of the bank-firm credit network and its role as channel of contagion

Lux, Thomas - 2014

This paper proposes a stochastic model of a bipartite credit network between banks and the non-bank corporate sector that encapsulates basic stylized facts fond in comprehensive data sets for bank-firm loans for a number of countries. When performing computational experiment with this mode, we...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010394343

Contagion risk in the interbank market : a probabilistic approach to cope with incomplete structural information

Montagna, Mattia; Lux, Thomas - 2014

Banks have become increasingly interconnected via interbank credit and other forms of liabilities. As a consequence of the increased interconnectedness, the failure of one node in the interbank network might constitute a threat to the survival of large parts of the entire system. How important...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010373653

Friendship between banks : an application of an actor-oriented model of network formation on interbank credit relations

Finger, Karl; Lux, Thomas - 2014

This paper investigates the driving forces behind banks’ link formation in the interbank market by applying the stochastic actor oriented model (SAOM) developed in sociology. Our data consists of quarterly networks constructed from the transactions on an electronic platform (e-MID) over the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010348301