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Relative forecasting performance of volatility models : Monte Carlo evidence

Lux, Thomas; Morales-Arias, Leonardo - 2010

A Monte Carlo (MC) experiment is conducted to study the forecasting performance of a variety of volatility models under alternative data generating processes (DGPs). The models included in the MC study are the (Fractionally Integrated) Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003932329

Parameter estimation and forecasting for multiplicative lognormal cascades

Leövey, Andrés E.; Lux, Thomas - 2011

We study the well-known multiplicative Lognormal cascade process in which the multiplication of Gaussian and Lognormally distributed random variables yields time series with intermittent bursts of activity. Due to the non-stationarity of this process and the combinatorial nature of such a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009389845

Stochastic behavioral asset pricing models and the stylized facts

Lux, Thomas (contributor) - 2008

High-frequency financial data are characterized by a set of ubiquitous statistical properties that prevail with surprising uniformity. While these 'stylized facts' have been well-known for decades, attempts at their behavioral explanation have remained scarce. However, recently a new branch of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003715066

Multifractality and long-range dependence of asset returns : the scaling behaviour of the Markov-switching multifractal model with lognormal volatility components

Liu, Ruipeng (contributor); Di Matteo, Tiziana (contributor) - 2008

In this paper we consider daily financial data from various sources (stock market indices, foreign exchange rates and bonds) and analyze their multi-scaling properties by estimating the parameters of a Markov-switching multifractal model (MSM) with Lognormal volatility components. In order to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003715073

Individual expectations and aggregate behavior in learning to forecast experiments

Hommes, Cars (contributor); Lux, Thomas (contributor) - 2008

Models with heterogeneous interacting agents explain macro phenomena through interactions at the micro level. We propose genetic algorithms as a model for individual expectations to explain aggregate market phenomena. The model explains all stylized facts observed in aggregate price fluctuations...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003777257

Switching rates and the asymptotic behavior of herding models

Irle, Albrecht; Kauschke, Jonas; Lux, Thomas; … - 2010

Markov chains have experienced a surge of economic interest in the form of behavioral agent-based models that aim at explaining the statistical regularities of financial returns. We review some of the relevant mathematical facts and show how they apply to agent-based herding models, with the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003932610

Extreme value theory as a theoretical background for power law behavior

Alfarano, Simone; Lux, Thomas - 2010

theory, which provide a statistical justification for the emergence of power laws as limiting behavior for extreme … fluctuations. The remarkable generality of the theory allows to abstract from the details of the system under investigation, and … therefore allows its application in many diverse fields. Moreover, this theory offers new powerful techniques for the estimation …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008654245

Inference for systems of stochastic differential equations from discretely sampled data : a numerical maximum likelihood approach

Lux, Thomas - 2012

Maximum likelihood estimation of discretely observed diffusion processes is mostly hampered by the lack of a closed form solution of the transient density. It has recently been argued that a most generic remedy to this problem is the numerical solution of the pertinent Fokker-Planck (FP) or...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009570666

A Markov-switching multifractal approach to forecasting realized volatility

Lux, Thomas; Morales-Arias, Leonardo; Sattarhoff, Cristina - 2011

The volatility specification of the Markov-switching Multifractal (MSM) model is proposed as an alternative mechanism for realized volatility (RV). We estimate the RV-MSM model via Generalized Method of Moments and perform forecasting by means of best linear forecasts derived via the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009314521

Contagion risk in the interbank market : a probabilistic approach to cope with incomplete structural information

Montagna, Mattia; Lux, Thomas - 2014

Banks have become increasingly interconnected via interbank credit and other forms of liabilities. As a consequence of the increased interconnectedness, the failure of one node in the interbank network might constitute a threat to the survival of large parts of the entire system. How important...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010373653