Showing 1 - 10 of 54
I analyze spillover effects from Euro area monetary policy shocks to thirteen EU countries outside the Euro area, i ….e., ten countries from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and three Western EU members. The analysis is based on a FAVAR model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011440779
I present evidence that the linear mixed-frequency Bayesian VAR provides very sharp and well calibrated monthly real-time recession probabilities for the euro area for the period from 2004 until 2013. The model outperforms not only the univariate regime-switching models for a number of hard and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011415289
It is conventionally held that countries are worse off by forming a monetary union when it comes to macroeconomic stabilization. However, this conventional view relies on assuming that monetary policy is conducted optimally. Relaxing the assumption of optimal monetary policy not only uncovers...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011415479
of Asian suppliers and hosts as a result of EU integration deepening and widening in the nineties. Based on recent …), trade resistance factors on the EU import side can be explained mainly by slow growth in Europe in the first half of the … of the Europe Agreements. As trade overlaps between Asian and CEE supply on EU markets are low, the trade diversion fear …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011472114
This paper examines the transition process within Eastern Europe and the integration process with the EU and shows that … the requirements for the transition towards a market economy overlap with the requirements for EU accession. Furthermore … economic development between the Central and Eastern European countries and the EU. The paper argues that the acceding …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011472269
The aim of this paper is to estimate the trade gains arising from the constitution ofa currency union for a set of economically large, developed nations who create a monetary union as a deliberate economic policy action: namely, for the members of the euro area. With a 1980-2001 sample, no...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011472291
The Eastern enlargement of the European Union (EU) is likely to give a further boost to trade and capital flows, yet … determinants of international asset holdings and trade flows. We find in most regressions that EU membership has a significant … effect. Based on additional simulations of the expected flows to ten transition economies, we conclude that for the EU …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011472489
Der Aufsatz untersucht einige populäre Methoden zur Messung des Output Gaps auf der Basis von aggregierten Daten für die Euro-Zone. Obwohl die Methoden einige wichtige gemeinsame Eigenschaften aufweisen, zeigen sie auch erhebliche Unterschiede; insbesondere ist die Korrelation zwischen...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011473858
This paper reviews the usefulness of monetary conditions in the euro area as leading indicators for aggregate demand conditions. Monetary conditions are measured with the MCI concept proposed by the Bank of Canada, and with the yield spread. A central result is that causality runs in both ways...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011474154
Based on a panel data model this paper investigates whether the effects of fiscal policy on national saving in Europe have changed after the Maastricht Treaty came into force. Recently Giavazzi, Jappelli and Pagano (2000) found evidence that national saving responds nonlinearly to fiscal policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011474247