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On the (de)stabilizing effects of news shocks

Winkler, Roland; Wohltmann, Hans-Werner - 2009

This paper analyzes the impacts of news shocks on macroeconomic volatility. Whereas anticipation amplifies volatility in any purely forward-looking model, such as the baseline New Keynesian model, the results are ambiguous when including a backward-looking component. In addition to these...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003872035

Is core money growth a good and stable inflation predictor in the euro area?

Carstensen, Kai (contributor) - 2007

In this paper, it is analyzed whether core money growth helps to predict future inflation in a useful and reliable way. Using an out-of-sample forecasting exercise and a stability analysis, it is shown that core money growth carries important information not contained in the inflation history,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003429547

Determinants of government bond spreads in the Euro Area : in good times as in bad

Aßmann, Christian; Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens - 2009

Despite the single currency, yields on government bonds in the Euro Area deviate from German bond yields. These bond spreads are usually attributed to differing default and liquidity risks. Recent research points out that time-varying global factors, approximated by risk measures or short term...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003877786

Primary surplus and debt projections based on estimated fiscal reaction functions for euro area countries

Plödt, Martin; Boeing-Reicher, Claire - 2014

We project the path of the public debt and primary surpluses for a number of countries in the euro area under a fiscal rule based on a set of estimated fiscal policy reaction functions. Our fiscal rule represents a fiscal analogue to a well-known monetary policy rule, and it is calibrated using...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010235435

Estimating simple fiscal policy reaction functions for the euro area countries

Plödt, Martin; Boeing-Reicher, Claire - 2014

We formulate and estimate a simple fiscal policy reaction function for the euro area and individual euro area countries. Our reaction function allows for primary surpluses to feature three components: an anti-cyclical response of primary surpluses to the output gap, a response to the debt-GDP...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010235448

Monetary union and macroeconomic stabilization

Groll, Dominik - 2013

It is conventionally held that countries are worse off by forming a monetary union when it comes to macroeconomic stabilization. However, this conventional view relies on assuming that monetary policy is conducted optimally. Relaxing the assumption of optimal monetary policy not only uncovers...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010202935

Announcements of ECB unconventional programs : implications for the sovereign risk of Italy

Falagiarda, Matteo; Reitz, Stefan - 2013

This paper studies the effects of ECB communications about unconventional monetary policy operations on the perceived sovereign risk of Italy over the last five years. More than fifty events concerning non-standard operations are identified and classified with respect to the specific ECB...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009783711

Monetary aggregates to improve early output gap estimates in the euro area -- an empirical assessment

Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens - 2014

Output gap estimates at the current edge are subject to severe revisions. This study analyzes whether monetary aggregates can be used to improve the reliability of early output gap estimates as proposed by several theoretical models. A real-time experiment shows that real M1 can improve output...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010248220

Spillover effects from euro area monetary policy across the EU : a factor-augmented VAR approach

Potjagailo, Galina - 2016

I analyze spillover effects from Euro area monetary policy shocks to thirteen EU countries outside the Euro area, i ….e., ten countries from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and three Western EU members. The analysis is based on a FAVAR model …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011440779

European integration deepening and widening : implications for Asia

Langhammer, Rolf J. - 1998

of Asian suppliers and hosts as a result of EU integration deepening and widening in the nineties. Based on recent …), trade resistance factors on the EU import side can be explained mainly by slow growth in Europe in the first half of the … of the Europe Agreements. As trade overlaps between Asian and CEE supply on EU markets are low, the trade diversion fear …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011472114