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We analyze the stock prices of the S&P market from 1987 to 2012 with the covariance matrix of the firm returns determined in time windows of several years. The eigenvector belonging to the leading eigenvalue (market) exhibits in its long term time dependence a phase transition with an order...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009762492
We use a Panel Smooth Transition Regression (STR) model to study nonlinearities in the expectation-formation process in the U.S. stock market. To this end, we use data from the Livingston survey to investigate how the importance of regressive and extrapolative expectations fluctuates over time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010384168
reduction in growth volatility, of more than 50%, in the agricultural sector, and a gradual stabilization in services. On the … volatility is due to within-sector changes in volatility, structural change explains less than 5%. Correlates of African … remittances, and improved terms of trade (ToT), as well as lower volatility of ToT and financial flows. These developments were …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013336273
This paper elaborates on the relative importance of sectoral shocks for real economic activity in Germany. Implications of multisectoral real business cycle models are examined by resorting to testing techniques based on stock market returns. The empirical evidence is obtained by calculating...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011476130
second simple component to account for the remaining contribution to the volatility. This allows the analytical calculation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011543357
This study seeks to explain why crude oil prices fluctuate, the main cause being the quota regime, which characterises the OPEC agreements. Given that the Saudi oil supply is inelastic in the short term, a shock in the oil market is accommodated by an immediate price change. In contrast, a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011473806
This paper analyzes the factors underlying the weakness of the euro. For this purpose, the framework advocated by Clarida and Gali (1994) is used. Within this model, three structural shocks drive the dynamics of the endogenous variables: aggregate supply shocks, aggregate spending shocks, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011473872
, one potentially adverse effect of globalization is the possibility that business cycle volatility might increase. Rapid … and badly co-ordinated capital account liberalization has been blamed for enhancing the vulnerability of emerging markets … to unstable international capital flows. At the same time, business cycle volatility in OECD countries seems to have been …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011474806
volatility depends on the nature of the underlying shock. Empirical evidence supports this conclusion. Our results also show that … the link between business cycle volatility and financial openness has not been stable over time. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011475038
implies that business cycle volatility is higher the more integrated the capital markets of the member countries of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011475042