We propose a simple modification of Hamilton’s (2018) time series filter that yields reliable and economically meaningful real-time output gap estimates. The original filter relies on 8 quarter ahead forecast errors of a simple autoregression of real GDP. While this approach yields a cyclical...

A growing body of empirical evidence shows that there exists a long-run positive tradeoff between inflation and real macroeconomic activity. Within a New Keynesian framewok, we examine how increasing returns generate a positive long-run relation between inflation and output.

The main purpose of this paper is to merge together two strands of the literature regarding, either directly or indirectly, inflation: the PPP and the Phillips curve ones. In order to accomplish this task, this contribution applies the tools of the Empirical Growth Literature and of Dynamic...

This paper analyzes the cost of disinflation under real wage rigidities in a micro-founded New Keynesian model. Unlike Blanchard and Galí (2007) who carried out a similar analysis in a linearized framework, we take non-linearities into account. We show that the results change dramatically, both...

The New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) has become the dominant model on inflation dynamics. Moreover, a large body of empirical research has documented in recent years price-setting behaviour at the individual level, which allows the assessment of the microfoundations of pricing models. It is...

We show that low trend inflation strongly affects the dynamics of a standard Neo-Keynesian model where monetary policy is described by a standard Taylor rule. Moreover, trend inflation enlarges the indeterminacy region in the parameter space, substantially altering the so-called Taylor...

This paper examines the evolution of the Phillips Curve (PC) for the Spanish economy since 1980. In particular, we focus on what has happened since the late 1990s. Since 1999 the unemployment rate has fallen by almost 7 percentage points, while inflation has remained relatively subdued around a...

Inflation and unemployment are central issues in macroeconomics. While progress has been made on these issues recently using models that explicitly incorporate search-type frictions, existing models analyze either unemployment or inflation in isolation. We develop a framework to analyze...

We develop a utility based model of fluctuations, with nominal rigidities, and unemployment. In doing so, we combine two strands of research: the New Key- nesian model with its focus on nominal rigidities, and the Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides model, with its focus on labor market frictions and...