The EU's macroeconomic surveillance mechanism, namely the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP), is based on the so-called Scoreboard, which comprises a set of indicators that serve as a signalling device for potentially harmful macroeconomic developments. We first evaluate the early warning...

In this paper, we use survey data to analyze the rationality of professional macroeconomic forecasts. We analyze both individual forecasts and average forecasts. We provide evidence on the properties of forecasts for all the G7-counties and four different macroeconomic variables. Furthermore, we...

We draw on two decades of historical data to analyze how regional labor markets in West Germany adjusted to one of the largest forced population movements in history, the mass inflow of eight million German expellees after World War II. The expellee inflow was distributed very asymmetrically...

This paper provides a micro-funded theory of multilateral resistance to migration analyzing how financial constraints determine migration trends. We build a RUM model in which we explicitly introduce the budget constraint in the migration decision: individuals cannot afford migrating to a...

This article focuses on an apparent conflict between the standard trade theory and available empirical evidence on factor flows. Theoretically, labor and capital flows must be substitutes. However, empirical papers find migration and FDI to be either substitutes or complements, depending upon...

The debate on the risks and benefits of the globalisation of international capital markets has focused on the volume and the volatility of the main capital flows - foreign direct investment (FDI), portfolio investment, and foreign bank lending. Financial transfers in the form of worker...

Recent studies have shown that there are significant earnings differentials between immigrants and natives in Switzerland. The goal of this paper is to determine whether these differences can be attributed to diverging socio-economic endowments or to discrimination. We use the well-known...

A key problem in the literature on the economics of migration is how emigration of an individual affects households left behind. Answers to this question must confront a problem I refer to as invisible sample selection: when entire households migrate, no information about them remains in their...

This paper assesses the potential for skilled labor migration from sub-Saharan Africa to Europe. It utilizes representative surveys from Ghana and Kenya to shed light on the quality and distribution of skills in the labor markets of these countries. Skills in both countries are found to be...

This paper employs a wage-setting approach to analyze the labor market effects of immigration into Germany. The wage-setting framework relies on the assumption that wages tend to decline with the unemployment rate, albeit imperfectly. This enables us to consider labor market rigidities, which...