This paper uses a Markov regime-switching model to assess the vulnerability of a series of Central and Eastern European countries (i.e. Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovak Republic) and two CIS countries (i.e., Russia and Ukraine) during the period 19932004. For the new EU member states in Central...

This paper investigates the effects of inward FDI on per-capita income and growth of the US states since the mid-1970s. Using a Markov chain approach, it shows that both quantitative and qualitative characteristics of FDI affect per-capita income and growth. Employment-intensive FDI,...

Although it is well known that Markov process theory, frequently applied in the literature on income convergence, imposes some very restrictive assumptions upon the data generating process, these assumptions have generally been taken for granted so far. The present paper proposes, resp. recalls...

In this paper we consider daily financial data from various sources (stock market indices, foreign exchange rates and bonds) and analyze their multi-scaling properties by estimating the parameters of a Markov-switching multifractal model (MSM) with Lognormal volatility components. In order to...

Guasoni (2006) introduced a simple condition for the absence of arbitrage opportunities. In this note we show that his results remain valid under a weaker notion of arbitrage which arises by excluding liquidation costs from the value process of a portfolio. -- Arbitrage ; transaction costs ;...

Markov chains have experienced a surge of economic interest in the form of behavioral agent-based models that aim at explaining the statistical regularities of financial returns. We review some of the relevant mathematical facts and show how they apply to agent-based herding models, with the...

The volatility specification of the Markov-switching Multifractal (MSM) model is proposed as an alternative mechanism for realized volatility (RV). We estimate the RV-MSM model via Generalized Method of Moments and perform forecasting by means of best linear forecasts derived via the...

I present evidence that the linear mixed-frequency Bayesian VAR provides very sharp and well calibrated monthly real-time recession probabilities for the euro area for the period from 2004 until 2013. The model outperforms not only the univariate regime-switching models for a number of hard and...