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Nonlinear expectation formation in the U.S. stock market : empirical evidence from the Livingston survey
Pierdzioch, Christian; Reitz, Stefan; Ruelke, Jan-Christoph - 2015
We use a Panel Smooth Transition Regression (STR) model to study nonlinearities in the expectation-formation process in the U.S. stock market. To this end, we use data from the Livingston survey to investigate how the importance of regressive and extrapolative expectations fluctuates over time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011452463
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Systematic errors in growth expectations over the business cycle
Dovern, Jonas; Jannsen, Nils - 2015
Using real-time data, we analyze how the systematic expectation errors of professional forecasters in 19 advanced economies depend on the state of the business cycle. Our results indicate that the general result that forecasters systematically overestimate output growth (across all countries)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010486869
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The importance of time series extrapolation for macroeconomic expectations
Roos, Michael W. M.; Schmidt, Ulrich - 2011
This paper presents a simple experiment on how laypeople form macroeconomic expectations. Subjects have to forecast inflation and GDP growth. By varying the information provided in different treatments, we can assess the importance of historical time-series information versus information...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009240694
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Heterogeneous forecasters and nonlinear expectation formation in the US stock market
Pierdzioch, Christian; Reitz, Stefan; Ruelke, Jan-Christoph - 2014
We use a Panel Smooth Transition Regression (STR) model to study nonlinearities in the expectation-formation process in the U.S. stock market. To this end, we use data from the Livingston survey to investigate how the importance of regressive and extrapolative expectations fluctuates over time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010384168
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Inflation expectations, the Phillips Curve and monetary policy
Curto Millet, Fabien (contributor) - 2007
Conjectures about inflation expectations are inextricably linked to our understanding of the relationship between the real and monetary sides of the economy; yet, direct empirical research on the matter has been scarce at best. This paper therefore examines the empirical properties of inflation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003485027
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The relationship between oil prices and long-term interest rates
Reicher, Christopher Phillip; Utlaut, Johannes - 2010
We estimate a seven-variable-VAR for the U.S. economy on postwar data using long-run restrictions, taking changes in long-run interest rates and inflation expectations into account. We find a strong connection between oil prices and long-run nominal interest rates which has lasted throughout the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003983006
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Measuring expected inflation and the ex-ante real interest rate in the euro area using structural vector autoregressions
Gottschalk, Jan - 2001
In this paper, the structural vector autoregression methodology is used to decompose the euro area nominal short-term interest rate into an expected inflation and an ex-ante real interest rate component. The latter may be a useful indicator of the monetary policy stance of the ECB. To this end,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011476385
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Trend growth and learning about monetary policy rules
Tesfaselassie, Mewael F. - 2011
The paper examines the effect of trend productivity growth on the determinacy and learnability of equilibria under alternative monetary policy rules. It shows that under a policy rule that responds to current period inflation and the output gap a higher trend growth rate relaxes the conditions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009382996
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Estimating monetary policy rules when the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates is approached
Kiesel, Konstantin; Wolters, Maik H. - 2014
Monetary policy rule parameters estimated with conventional estimation techniques can be severely biased if the … estimation sample includes periods of low interest rates. Nominal interest rates cannot be negative, so that censored regression … methods like Tobit estimation have to be used to achieve unbiased estimates. We use IV-Tobit regression to estimate monetary …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010235450
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Monetary union and macroeconomic stabilization
Groll, Dominik - 2013
It is conventionally held that countries are worse off by forming a monetary union when it comes to macroeconomic stabilization. However, this conventional view relies on assuming that monetary policy is conducted optimally. Relaxing the assumption of optimal monetary policy not only uncovers...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010202935