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Measuring expected inflation and the ex-ante real interest rate in the euro area using structural vector autoregressions
Gottschalk, Jan - 2001
In this paper, the structural vector autoregression methodology is used to decompose the euro area nominal short-term interest rate into an expected inflation and an ex-ante real interest rate component. The latter may be a useful indicator of the monetary policy stance of the ECB. To this end,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011476385
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Predicting real exchange rates from real interest rate differentials and net foreign asset stocks : evidence for the mark/dollar parity
Meier, Carsten-Patrick - 1999
When nontraded goods prices are accounted for consistently and genuine stock data on bilateral foreign asset holdings is employed, a modified sticky-price exchange rate model by far outperforms the benchmark random walk-model in empirically forecasting the D-mark/dollar parity out of sample....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011490699
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Interpreting productivity growth in the new economy : some agnostic notes
Gundlach, Erich - 2001
The growth rate of total factor productivity seems to have increased recently, at least in the United States. Higher US productivity growth may justify higher stock market valuations than in the past and thus herald an emerging New Economy. However, the size of the estimated growth rate of total...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011477079
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On determinacy and learnability in a New Keynesian model with unemployment
Tesfaselassie, Mewael F.; Schaling, Eric - 2009
We analyze determinacy and stability under learning (E-stability) of rational expectations equilibria in the Blanchard and Galí (2006, 2008) New-Keynesian model of inflation and unemployment, where labor market frictions due to costs of hiring workers play an important role. We derive results...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003827166
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Sustainable intensification of pineapple farming in Ghana : training and complexity
Wuepper, David; Sauer, Johannes; Kleemann, Linda - 2014
Sustainable intensification of Ghana’s smallholder farming is critical to mitigate rural poverty. Innovations for sustainable intensification include agro-ecological practices, which build up soil fertility, and mulching, which conserves soil moisture. To stimulate the adoption of these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010429781
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Long-run inflation-unemployment dynamics : the Spanish Phillips curve and economic policy
Karanassou, Marika; Sala, Hector; Snower, Dennis J. - 2008 - This revised version: March 2008
This paper takes a new look at the long-run dynamics of inflation and unemployment in response to permanent changes in the growth rate of the money supply. We examine the Phillips curve from the perspective of what we call "frictional growth," i.e. the interaction between money growth and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011452035
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International transmission of financial stress : evidence from a GVAR
Dovern, Jonas; Roye, Björn van - 2013
We analyze the international transmission of financial stress and its effects on economic activity. We construct country specific monthly financial stress indexes (FSI) using dynamic factor models from 1970 until 2012 for 20 countries. We show that there is a strong co-movement of the FSI during...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009761846
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Estimating monetary policy rules when the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates is approached
Kiesel, Konstantin; Wolters, Maik H. - 2014
Monetary policy rule parameters estimated with conventional estimation techniques can be severely biased if the … estimation sample includes periods of low interest rates. Nominal interest rates cannot be negative, so that censored regression … methods like Tobit estimation have to be used to achieve unbiased estimates. We use IV-Tobit regression to estimate monetary …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010235450
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Announcements of ECB unconventional programs : implications for the sovereign risk of Italy
Falagiarda, Matteo; Reitz, Stefan - 2013
This paper studies the effects of ECB communications about unconventional monetary policy operations on the perceived sovereign risk of Italy over the last five years. More than fifty events concerning non-standard operations are identified and classified with respect to the specific ECB...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009783711
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Spillover effects from euro area monetary policy across the EU : a factor-augmented VAR approach
Potjagailo, Galina - 2016
I analyze spillover effects from Euro area monetary policy shocks to thirteen EU countries outside the Euro area, i.e., ten countries from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and three Western EU members. The analysis is based on a FAVAR model with two blocks which exploits a large cross-country...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011440779