This paper proposes an approach for estimating the uncertainty associated with model-based macroeconomic forecasts. We argue that estimated forecast intervals should account for the uncertainty arising from selecting the specification of an empirical forecasting model from the sample data. To...

Stylized facts suggest that output volatility in OECD countries has declined in recent years. However, the causes and the nature of this decline have so far been analyzed mainly for the United States. In this paper, we analyze whether structural breaks in the dynamics and the volatility of the...

The debate on the risks and benefits of the globalisation of international capital markets has focused on the volume and the volatility of the main capital flows ? foreign direct investment (FDI), portfolio investment, and foreign bank lending. Financial transfers in the form of worker...

The debate on the risks and benefits of the globalisation of international capital markets has focused on the volume and the volatility of the main capital flows ? foreign direct investment (FDI), portfolio investment, and foreign bank lending. Financial transfers in the form of worker...