This paper proposes an approach for estimating the uncertainty associated with model-based macroeconomic forecasts. We argue that estimated forecast intervals should account for the uncertainty arising from selecting the specification of an empirical forecasting model from the sample data. To...

This paper is part of the project European Integration, Financial Systems and Corporate Performance (EIFC) carried out within the European Commission s specific programme Improving the Human Research Potential and the Socio-Economic Knowledge Base . Financial support from the European Union, DG...