We model the evolution of age-dependent personal income distribution and inequality as expressed by the Gini ratio. In our framework, inequality is an emergent property of a theoretical model we develop for the dynamics of individual incomes. The model relates the evolution of personal income to...

The demographic database of Istat (www.istat.it)is explored and the main facts are extracted and described, both at the aggregate national level as well as at the regional one. This paper is completely self-standing but, at the same time, poses the basis for a more general analysis that will be...

We present a comprehensive macroeconomic model for the U.S. There exist strict long-term relations between real GDP, price inflation, labor force participation, productivity, and unemployment. The evolution of real GDP depends only on exogenous demographic forces. Other macro-variables follow up...

This study validates the microeconomic model defining the evolution of personal incomes in the U.S. Because of a large portion of population not reporting any income, any comprehensive modeling of the overall personal income distribution (PID) is complicated. Age-dependent PIDs allow overcoming...

The predictions of the S&P 500 returns made in 2007 have been tested and the underlying models amended. The period between 2003 and 2008 should be described by the dependence of the S&P 500 stock market index on real GDP because the population pyramid was highly inaccurate. The 2008 trough and...

The evolution of Gini coefficient for personal incomes in the USA between 1947 and 2005 is analyzed and modeled. There are several versions of personal income distribution (PID) provided by the US Census Bureau (US CB) for this period with various levels of resolution. Effectively, these PIDs...

The Ecofin-Oecd methodology is applied to reconstruct the health care expenditure evolution in Italy and in the Region Emilia Romagna. The reconstructed series can be compared to the historical series, highlighting the different capabilities of the Italian average and of the Region Emilia...

Data from Stability Programs (European Countries) and from Us Congress Budget Office and Us Bureau of Census are collected to investigate the burden each worker will have to bear in the future in order to finance pension and health care provisions. If the private side of the system is based,...

The demographic database of Eurostat and of Us Census of Bureau are explored and the main facts are extracted and described. This paper is completely self-standing but is also part of a more general analysis dedicated to the functioning and sustainability of pay-as-you-go to finance the welfare...

We use the same methodology, that Ecofin-Oecd apply for projecting expenditure in the medium-long term, to reconstruct expenditure in the medium-long past. It is possible to compare the effective expenditure with the reconstructed one. The effective expenditure is of course influenced by policy...