Semiparametric estimates of long memory seem useful in the analysis of long financial time series because they are consistent under much broader conditions than parametric estimates. However, recent large sample theory for semiparametric estimates forbids conditional heteroscedasticity. We show...

For a particular conditionally heteroscedastic nonlinear (ARCH) process for which the conditional variance of the observable sequence rt is the square of an inhomogeneous linear combination of rs, s < t, we give conditions under which, for integers 1 > 2, r' has long memory autocorrelation and normalized partial sums of ri converge to fractional...</t,>

This paper evaluates the model risk of models used for forecasting systemic and market risk. Model risk, which is the potential for different models to provide inconsistent outcomes, is shown to be increasing with and caused by market uncertainty. During calm periods, the underlying risk...

We study the mechanics of transmission of fiscal shocks to labour markets. We characterize a set of robust implications following government consumption, investment and employment shocks in a RBC and a New- Keynesian model and use part of them to identify shocks in the data. In line with the...

This paper presents a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for a class of multivariate diffusion models with unobserved paths. This class is of high practical interest as it includes most diffusion driven stochastic volatility models. The algorithm is based on a data augmentation scheme where the...

We address the problem of parameter estimation for diffusion driven stochastic volatility models through Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). To avoid degeneracy issues we introduce an innovative reparametrisation defined through transformations that operate on the time scale of the diffusion. A...

We contribute to the growing empirical literature on monetary and fiscal interactions by applying a sign restriction identification scheme to a structural TVP-VAR in order to disentangle and evaluate the policy shocks and policy transmissions. This in turn allows us to study the Great Recession...

We contribute to the growing empirical literature on monetary and fiscal interactions by applying a sign restriction identification scheme to a structural TVP-VAR in order to disentangle and evaluate the policy shocks and policy transmissions. This in turn allows us to study the Great Recession...

We use information from two prospective British birth cohort studies to explore the antecedents of adult malaise, an indicator of incipient depression. These studies include a wealth of information on childhood circumstances, behaviour, test scores and family background, measured several times...

Probably not. First, allowing the probabilities attached to the states of the economy to differ from their sample frequencies, the Consumption-CAPM is still rejected by the data and requires a very high level of Relative Risk Aversion(RRA) in order to rationalize the stock market risk premium....