This paper presents new models for aggregate UK data on mortgage possessions (foreclosures) and mortgage arrears (payment delinquencies). The innovations include the treatment of difficult to observe variations in loan quality and shifts in forbearance policy by lenders, by common latent...

This paper shows how and when it is possible to obtain a mapping from a quarterly DSGE model to amonthly specification thatmaintains the same economic restrictions and has real coefficients. We use this technique to derive the monthly counterpart of the Gali et al (2011) model. We then augment...

This paper considers techniques for measuring the prevalence of income poverty within small areas, or “neighbourhoods”, in Britain. The ultimate purpose is applying such statistics to investigating how the micro-spatial distribution of poverty within cities and regions changes over time as a...

This paper considers techniques for measuring the prevalence of income poverty within small areas, or “neighbourhoods”, in Britain. The ultimate purpose is applying such statistics to investigating how the micro-spatial distribution of poverty within cities and regions changes over time as a...

Evaluation of forecast optimality in economics and finance has almost exclusively been conducted on the assumption of mean squared error loss under which forecasts should be unbiased and forecast errors serially uncorrelated at the single period horizon with increasing variance as the forecast...

We frequently observe that one of the aims of time series analysts is to predict future values of the data. For weakly dependent data, when the model is known up to a finite set of parameters, its statistical properties are well documented and exhaustively examined. However, if the model was...

We look into the available macroeconomic figures and the predictions made about the recession in Greece by international organizations, Greek research centers, and the Greek government; and suggest that the predictions regarding the decline in real GDP in recent years were overly optimistic. The...

A common view is that the performance of the UK economy between 1997 and 2010 under Labour was very weak and that the current economic problems are a consequence of poor policies in this period. In this report, we analyse the historical performance of the UK economy since 1997 compared with...

Motivated by the on-going interest of policy makers in the sources of job creation, this paper presents results from a new OECD project on the dynamics of employment (DynEmp) based on an innovative methodology using firm-level data (i.e. national business registers or similar sources). It...