We analyze the performance of Bayesian model averaged exchange rate forecasts for euro/US dollar, euro/Japanese yen, euro/Swiss franc and euro/British pound rates using weights based on the out-of-sample predictive likelihood. The paper also presents a simple stratified sampling procedure in the...

If oil exporters stabilize the purchasing power of their export revenues in terms of imports, exchange rate developments (and particularly, developments in the US dollar/euro exchange rate) may contain information about oil price changes. This hypothesis depends on three conditions: (a) OPEC has...

This paper is concerned with the practical problem of conducting inference in a vector time series setting when the data is unbalanced or incomplete. In this case, one can work only with the common sample, to which a standard HAC/Bootstrap theory applies, but at the expense of throwing away data...

We develop inference tools in a semiparametric regression model with missing response data. A semiparametric regression imputation estimator, a marginal average estimator and a (marginal) propensity score weighted estimator are defined. All the estimators are proved to be asymptotically normal,...

We investigate the performance of a class of semiparametric estimators of the treatment effect via asymptotic expansions. We derive approximations to the first two moments of the estimator that are valid to 'second order'. We use these approximations to define a method of bandwidth selection. We...

A probabilistic forecasting method to predict thunderstorms in the European Eastern Alps is developed. A statistical model links lightning occurrence from the ground-based ALDIS detection network to a large set of direct and derived variables from a numerical weather prediction (NWP) system. The...

This paper proposes a class of locally stationary diffusion processes. The model has a time varying but locally linear drift and a volatility coefficient that is allowed to vary over time and space. We propose estimators of all the unknown quantities based on long span data. Our estimation...

We propose a general two-step estimation method for the structural parameters of popular semiparametric Markovian discrete choice models that include a class of Markovian Games and allow for continuous observable state space. The estimation procedure is simple as it directly generalizes the...

For local and average kernel based estimators, smoothness conditions ensure that the kernel order determines the rate at which the bias of the estimator goes to zero and thus allows the econometrician to control the rate of convergence. In practice, even with smoothness the estimation errors may...