Showing 1 - 10 of 155
statistics within these bins. The quantile coupling allows one to apply the standard Gaussian-based estimation and inference to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010362928
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012669844
Scaling behavior measured in cross-sectional studies through the tail index of a power law is prone to a bias. This hampers inference; in particular, time variation in estimated tail indices may be erroneous. In the case of a linear factor model, the factor biases the tail indices in the left and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012627934
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012108286
Implications for signal extraction from specifying unobserved components (UC) models with correlated or orthogonal innovations have been well investigated. In contrast, the forecasting implications of specifying UC models with different state correlation structures are less well understood. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011809478
We introduce a new approach for the estimation of high-dimensional factor models with regime-switching factor loadings by extending the linear three-pass regression filter to settings where parameters can vary according to Markov processes. The new method, denoted as Markov-switching three-pass...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011637435
Bayesian predictive synthesis is a flexible method of combining density predictions. The flexibility comes from the ability to choose an arbitrary synthesis function to combine predictions. I study the choice of synthesis function when combining large numbers of predictions-a common occurrence...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014456598
Bayesian predictive synthesis (BPS) is a method of combining predictive distributions based on agent opinion analysis theory, which encompasses many common approaches to combining density forecasts. The key ingredient in BPS is a synthesis function. This is typically specified parametrically as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014457607
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003731498
A distinguishing feature of macro stress testing exercises is the use of macroeconomic models in scenario design and implementation. It is widely agreed that scenarios should be based on rare but plausibleʺ events that have either resulted in vulnerabilities in the past or could do so in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003772984