This paper investigates the predictive properties of import and export prices of commodities on the exchange rates. A period from 1993 to 2016 is considered. We _nd that forecasts of the exchange rate adding commodity export and import prices are superior to those neglecting these variables....

We use a 2018 survey of FX margin traders in Japan to investigate which key factors influence their performance: socio-demographic and economic situation, investment strategy and trading behaviour, and/or financial literacy. First, the data show that variables from all three groups are...

The open economy New Keynesian model with flexible exchange rates postulates that the real exchange rate appreciates in response to an asymmetric negative demand shock in a zero lower bound (ZLB) scenario and exacerbates the adverse macroeconomic effects. However, when monetary policy is able to...

Regular or automated processes require reliable software applications that provide accurate volatility and Value-at-Risk forecasts. The univariate and multivariate GARCH models proposed in the literature are reviewed and the suitability of selected R functions for automated forecasting systems...

What are the effects of sanctions and economic support on stock prices and exchange rates in the Russia-Ukraine war? We address this question using a panel-VAR model that incorporates data from 23 countries, besides Russia and Ukraine, spanning the period from 02/01/2022 to 02/24/2023. Our...

Using an event-study design, we investigate monetary policy interest-rate-to-performance sensitivity of the European banking sector over the 07/2012-06/2017 period when interest rates were (close to) zero. We apply the Wordscores approach to introductory statements of ECB's Governing Council...

We examine howthe verbal complexity of ECB communications affectsfi-nancial market trading based on high-frequency data fromEuropean stock index futures trading. Studying the 34 events between May 2009 and June 2017, during which the ECB Governing Council press conferences covered unconventional...

This paper empirically examines the effect of public attention to climate change and pollution on the weekly returns on US sustainability stock indices (i.e. the DJSI US and the FTSE4Good USA Index) in comparison to their conventional counterparts (i.e. the S&P 500 Index and the FTSE USA). In...

We examine the effects of federal funds target rate changes and all types of FOMC communication on European and Pacific equity market returns using a GARCH model. We show that both types of news have a significant statistical and economic impact, but that the effects are not symmetric: target...

We study the effects of U.S. monetary policy and macroeconomic announcements on Argentine money, stock and foreign exchange markets' returns and volatility over the period 1998 to 2006 using a GARCH model. Firstly, we show that both types of news have a significant impact on all markets....