This paper is part of the Kobe Research Project and documents the Dutch and Thai experiences regarding exchange rate policy, capital controls, and developments in the banking sector. In view of these experiences, it seeks to identify requirements for successful currency regimes, in particular...

This paper develops a monetary-fiscal game which stresses the importance of international spillovers and introduces a double (monetary and fiscal) credibility problem. The first part of the paper shows that the welfare cost of structural distortions is increased by the inability of fisical...

This paper employs a dynamic Ricardian model to analyse the impact of the timing of EU expansion on the real exchange rate between the accession countries' currencies and the euro. I find that the real exchange rate response to EU accession is smaller in the case of a postponed accession, as...

Using area-wide data, we perform a VAR analysis to simulate the responses of inflation and real output following monetary shocks in the EMU. We find that short-term interest rate shocks have a significant impact on real activity, but hardly on prices. M3 shows a perverse short-term response to a...

We analyze the effects of a contractionary Dutch monetary policy shock that is consistent with the fixed guilder/mark exchange rate. Although monetary policy shocks are quite small, they do have plausible effects: credit, expenditures, output and prices all fall after a monetary tightening....

We investigate shifts in correlation patterns among international equity returns at the market level as well as the industry level. We develop a novel bivariate GARCH model for equity returns with a smoothly time-varying correlation and then derive a Lagrange Multiplier statistic to test the...

The EU accession countries have made remarkable progress in developing their financial sectors. Nevertheless, potential risks to banking sector stability remain. We take stock of these risks, with a focus on the challenges posed by the EU accession process. Important potential risks we identify...

Using a New-Keynesian framework, we investigate how far the inflationary processes in member states of EMU cause regional price levels to converge. We fail to produce hard evidence of the present existence of such an adjustment mechanism, not-withstanding that inflation in some countries tends...