This paper presents and estimates a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) small-open-economy model for the Hungarian economy. The model features different types of frictions, real and nominal rigidities which are necessary to replicate the empirical persistence of Hungarian data....

Using Hungarian macroeconomic and financial data, we estimate a Bayesian structural VAR model suitable for macroprudential simulations. We identify standard macroeconomic and credit supply shocks by sign and zero restrictions. In contrast to the previous literature, different types of credit...

The majority of the New Keynesian DSGE literature assumes that the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy can be satisfactorily described by an interest rate rule without addressing the details of the money supply. We investigate whether this approach remains valid in the presence of inside...

The lessons of the financial and macroeconomic crisis of 2007-2008 made the development of a new macroeconomic forecasting model necessary in the MNB. The model represents a small open economy. It is based on the DSGE philosophy but it deviates from it at several points. The new features of the...

This paper presents and estimates a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) small-open-economy model for the Hungarian economy. The model features different types of frictions, real and nominal rigidities which are necessary to replicate the empirical persistence of Hungarian data....

This paper studies how the models of the new open economy macroeconomics, which usually focuses on the relationship between the nominal exchange rate and the external real exchange rate, can explain the coexistence of permanent dual inflation, i.e. diverging inflation rates for tradable and...

Using Hungarian macroeconomic and financial data, we estimate a Bayesian structural VAR model suitable for macroprudential simulations. We identify standard macroeconomic and credit supply shocks by sign and zero restrictions. In contrast to the previous literature, different types of credit...

This paper, using a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium framework, considers how a small open EMU accession country should choose its Euro conversion rate. In this model a monetary union is interpreted as a perfectly credible infinite nominal exchange rate peg, and an algorithm is provided...

We explore the properties of welfare-maximizing monetary policy in a medium-scale DSGE model for Hungary. In order to make our results operational from a policymaker’s perspective, we approximate the optimal policy rule with a set of simple rules reacting only to observable variables. Our...