The 9/56 year cycle consists of a grid repeating the intervals 56 years vertically (called sequences) and 9 years horizontally (called subcycles). Since 1760, US and Western European financial panics have clustered with significance in this grid pattern. Seasonality was also observed within the...

Monthly time-series data based on agricultural commodities tend to present strong and particular patterns of seasonality. The presence of zero values in some of the seasons is not explained by the absence of reporting but is the result of actual features of agricultural processes. Seasonal unit...

A model is analyzed in which workers' efforts depend positively on the real wage and the unemployment rate. Due to isoelastic demand and constant marginal cost it is optimal for firms to set the output price as a fixed markup over the nominal wage. When demand shocks occur, firms' first response...

We propose a modified version of the Shapiro-Stiglitz’s (1984) efficiency wage model by introducing temporary contracts in the standard setup. New theoretical insights emerge on the incentive problem faced by workers and firms. We argue that the existence of temporary contracts broaden the...

The housing market exhibits a puzzling yet repetitive seasonal boom and bust cycle where prices and trade volume rise in summers and fall in winters. This paper presents a search model that analytically generates the observed deterministic cycle.

This note, published in 1995, assesses the problems that might be entailed by the introduction of the European monetary union. It is argued that wage pressure will not be diminished by forming the union, and the stagflation problem that lies at the root of the rising trend in unemployment will...

The seasonal adjustment method proposed by Schlicht (1981) can be viewed as a method that minimizes non-stochastic deviations (perturbations). This interpretation gives rise to a critique of the seasonality criterion used there. A new seasonality criterion is proposed that avoids these...

A labor market is considered that is characterized by job competition over job ladders. Firms paying more for comparable jobs can attract workers with better background characteristics (with general human capital) and will lose fewer trained workers (with general and firm-specific human...

The paper discusses a new seasonality hypothesis which is one part of a weighted regression approach for the decomposition of a time series into a trend, a seasonal component and an irregular component. It is shown that there exists a regression formulation leading, as in the descriptive...

A firm may reduce its turnover and the entailed turnover costs by raising wages. A rise in unemployment reduces turnover and turnover costs in a similar way. The interaction of these effects leads – in presence of perfectly flexible wages – to a stable equilibrium in the labor market which...