This paper develops an open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model based on New-Keynesian micro-foundations. Alongside standard features of emerging economies, such as a combination of producer and local currency pricing for exporters, foreign capital inflow in terms of...

This paper proposes a Markov-switching framework useful to endogenously identify regimes where economies enter recessionary and expansionary phases synchronously, and regimes where economies are unsynchronized following independent business cycle phases. The reliability of the framework to track...

This study provides evidence of the relationship between credit and real activity in Central America and the Dominican Republic. We address the empirics of the link between credit and real activity for the case of a group of developing countries with limited financial markets where bank credit...

This paper proposes a probabilistic model based on comovements and nonlinearities useful to assess the type of shock affecting each phase of the business cycle. By providing simultaneous inferences on the phases of real activity and inflation cycles, contractionary episodes are dated and...

An extensive literature has analyzed the implications of hidden shifts in the dividend growth rate. However, corresponding research on learning about growth persistence is completely lacking. Hidden persistence is a novel way to introduce long-run risk into standard business-cycle models of...

This paper estimates and forecasts U.S. business cycle turning points with state-level data. The probabilities of recession are obtained from univariate and multivariate regime-switching models based on a pairwise combination of national and state-level data. We use two classes of combination...

In business cycle research, smoothing data is an essential step in that it can influence the extent to which model-generated moments stand up to their empirical counterparts. To demonstrate this idea, we compare the results of McDermott’s (1997) modified HP-filter with the conventional...

Professor Becker´s 1956 paper about free banking was originally intended as a reaction to the 100-percent reserve proposals that were then popular at the University of Chicago. Today the original paper clearly illustrates how considerably our views and theories about free banking have evolved...

I construct a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model characterized by flexible prices, search frictions, and nominal wage contracts, and examine to what extent the model can explain the quantitative business cycle properties of real macroeconomic variables in the U.S. economy. I...

In this paper, I use a large set of macroeconomic and financial predictors to forecast U.S. recession periods. I adopt Bayesian methodology with shrinkage in the parameters of the probit model for the binary time series tracking the state of the economy. The in-sample and out-of-sample results...