In this paper, we investigate whether survey measures of inflation expec-tations in Sweden Granger cause Swedish CPI-inflation. This is done by studying the precision of out-of-sample forecasts from Bayesian VAR models using a sample of quarterly data from 1996 to 2016. It is found that the...

Interpreting Granger causality as economic causality implies that the underlying VAR model is a structural economic model. However, this is wrong if simultaneity occurs. Magnitude and stability of possible errors are analysed in a simulation study. It is shown that economic misinterpretations of...

The 'saving for a rainy day' hypothesis implies that households' saving decisions reflect that they can (rationally) predict future income declines. The empirical relevance of this hypothesis plays a key role in discussions of fiscal policy multipliers and it holds under the null that the...

The main aim of this contribution is an analysis of the causal relationship between the total energy consumption in the Polish economy and GDP. In order to assure the correctness of computations a third variable – employment – was included in the dataset. Calculations performed for the...

This study attempts to investigate a supply function for electricity in Portugal through cointegration and causality analysis over the sample period of 1970 to 2008 to test hypotheses related to the electricity-economic growth nexus in the literature. Evidence is found in favour of cointegration...

This study investigates the relationship between saving, investment and economic growth for India over the period 1950-51 to 2007-08. The literature on the role of saving in promoting economic growth generally points to saving led growth. However, few studies show evidence for growth driven...

This paper investigates causal links between economic growth, oil consumption and natural gas usage in Poland on the basis of quarterly data for the period Q1 2000 – Q4 2009. The application of the Toda–Yamamoto procedure, a nonlinear Granger causality test, bootstrap techniques and an...

This paper investigates the differences in structures of causal relationships between stock and currency markets for advanced and emerging economies on the example of Switzerland and Poland. The bootstrap–based linear causality analysis as well as nonlinear causality tests were conducted for...

The main goal of this paper is an analysis of the causal links between quarterly coal consumption in the Polish economy and GDP. For the sake of accurate computation an additional variable – employment – was also taken into account. Computations conducted for the period Q1 2000 to Q4 2009 by...

The aim of this contribution is an investigation of causal interdependences between electricity consumption and GDP in Poland. Our research was conducted for total electricity consumption as well as for the industrial consumption of electricity. In order to reflect the causality between GDP and...