This paper investigates the relationship between asset markets and business cycles with regard to the United States economy. We consider the Goldman Sachs approach (2003) developed to study the dynamics of financial balances. By means of a small econometric model we find that asset market...

This research examines dynamic causal relationships between per capita calorie intake, per capita income and food prices using time series data for Turkey during 1965-2007. ARDL cointegration analysis yields an income elasticity of calorie intake of 0.22, while the food-price elasticity is...

While the global economic recovery continues, it remains uneven and subject to downside risks. Yet,to the extent that these linger, they could undermine growth further and foster larger macroeconomic imbalances.In fact,one unwanted characteristics that most Sub-saharan African economies share,...

Various inflation forecasting models are compared using a simulated out-of-sample forecasting framework. We focus on the question of whether monetary aggregates are useful for forecasting inflation, but unlike previous work we examine a wide range of forecast horizons and allow for estimated as...

Empirical models of inflation often incorporate equilibrium correction effects based upon levels of prices and input costs. Such models assume that the steady-state price-cost markup is constant, but recent research suggests that this may not be true for the Euro area economy, which has...

This paper addresses cointegration in small cross-sectional panel data models. In addition to dealing with cointegrating relationships within the cross-sectional dimension, the paper explicitly addresses the issue of cointegration between cross-sections. The approach is based upon a well-known...

The purpose of this paper is to reexamine empirically the relationship between long-term interest rates in well integrated financial markets. The analysis focuses on long-term interest rates in the US and Germany and has been carried out within the framework of a five dimensional VAR for the...

We investigate optimal horizons for targeting inflation in response to different shocks and their properties under alternative preferences of an inflation-targeting central bank. Our analysis is based on a well specified macroeconometric model of Norway, but we examine how alternative...

Does a "one model fits all" approach apply to the econometric modeling of regional house price determination? To answer this question, we utilize a panel of 100 US Metropolitan Statistical Areas over the period 1980q1-2010q2. For each area we estimate a separate cointegrated VAR model, focusing...

The 'saving for a rainy day' hypothesis implies that households' saving decisions reflect that they can (rationally) predict future income declines. The empirical relevance of this hypothesis plays a key role in discussions of fiscal policy multipliers and it holds under the null that the...