This article reexamines the thesis that fiscal deficits cause trade deficits and challenges this explanation of the twin deficits with the following propositions. Differences in competitiveness among nations do not lead to balanced trade. Using a Eurozone case study, the article discusses the...

Purpose – Considering the sectoral balance approach of Godley, and focusing only on the two main components of the private sector balance for the U.S. economy (household and non-financial corporate balance), we investigate the relationship between these two sectors, the financial variables,...

This paper investigates the time-varying correlation between the EU12-wide business cycle and the initial EU12 member-countries based on Scalar-BEKK and multivariate Riskmetrics model frameworks for the period 1980-2012. The paper provides evidence that changes in the business cycle...

The R word has begun to appear in the media again bringing with it three technical questions viz, How will we know we are in recession? How will we know when it has ended? And How can we forecast its onset and ending? This paper does not provide answers to these questions rather it focuses on...

This paper examines the spatial interaction of neighboring cities over their employment cycles. The cycles of neighboring cities tend to be more similar to one another than are those of non-neighboring cities, although this is due primarily to neighbors' tendency to be in the same state. In...

In this paper I address the following questions. - Has the business cycle become longer and shallower? And why? - How stabilizing is monetary policy. In answering these questions I summarize recent research undertaken by Adrian Pagan and myself that formalizes the procedures developed by Burns...

Theory suggests that endogenous borrowing constraints amplify the impact of external shocks on the economy. How big is the amplification? In this paper, we quantitatively investigate this question in the context of a dynamic general equilibrium model with borrowing constraints under two...

The ultimate objective of this paper is to discuss the duration of business cycles and the related issue of the probability of recession. To reach that objective it is necessary to first agree on a definition of business cycles. It is also necessary to agree on how to define the key features of...

Recent events suggest that the death of the business cycle has been exaggerated; the issue of how one learns about and monitors the business cycle remains centre stage. Advent of the Euro and the potential for tensions when sovereign nations subsume their monetary policy into a single response...

For U.S. firms from 1988 to 2007, firms with stricter loan covenants had higher firm-level default recovery rates. Covenants were stricter, moreover, when set during downturns in the business cycle. This implies a negative dependence of recovery rates on lagged macroeconomic conditions. That is,...