During the Great Moderation, borrowing by the U.S. nonfinancial sector structurally exceeded GDP growth. Using flow-of-fund data, we test the hypothesis that this measure of debt buildup was leading to lower output volatility. We estimate univariate GARCH models in order to obtain estimates for...

This study investigates how markets for different levels of copper purity are interrelated by testing the long-run price linkage and causalities among the copper futures, primary, copper scrap, and brass scrap markets. It is expected that copper markets that deal with high purity levels, such as...

This paper analyzes the causal relationships between returns and volatilities of assets prices in U.S. and French markets. The period for the study has been taken from January 1997 to December 2000, using daily and weekly data. Initial results show that U.S. stock prices "Granger-cause" French...

Financial innovation during the Great Moderation increased the size and scope of credit flows in the US. Credit flows increased both in volume and with regard to the range of activities and investments that was debt-financed. This may have contributed to the reduction in output volatility that...

This study employs the bounds testing approach to cointegration to investigate the relationships between the prices of two strategic commodities: gold and oil and the financial variables (interest rate, exchange rate and stock price) of Japan – a major oil-consuming and gold-holding country....

The relationship between public expenditure and aggregate income has long been debated in economic literature. According to Wagner, expenditure is an endogenous factor or an outcome. On the other hand, Keynes considered public expenditure as an exogenous factor to be used as a policy instrument...

Wagner’s Law is the first model of public spending in the history of public finance. The aim of this article is to assess its empirical evidence in Italy for the period 1960-2008 at a disaggregated level, using a time-series approach. After a brief introduction, a survey of the economic...

This paper tests the relationship between trade and economic growth for the case of Romania, during 1998-2004. We employed cointegration and Granger-causality tests on stochastic systems composed of exports, imports and GDP. In order to have some degree of significance, we performed our tests on...

Economic development in Cuban economy in the last 50 years has been involved in the so called socialist revolution time. In the external sector, the COMECON arrangements have determined its international specialization trade pattern and balance of payments position until 1989. When the Berlin...

The paper studies a factor GARCH model and develops test procedures which can be used to test the number of factors needed to model the conditional heteroskedasticity in the considered time series vector. Assuming normally distributed errors the parameters of the model can be straightforwardly...