Showing 1 - 10 of 39
The forecast plays an important role in the planning, the decision-making and control in any domain of activity … (univariate models), that use only the information of its past values to forecast the future, can often predict future with more … accuracy than causal or multivariate models. In this paper, we model and forecast the offensive effectiveness of the soccer …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005789648
lagged relationship provides a precise forecast at the two-year horizon with root mean square forecasting error (RMSFE) as … forecast methodology effectively outperforms any other forecasting technique reported in economic and financial literature …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005835571
The assumption we submit, because macroeconomic forcasts would be unperfect, is that behavioral equations doesn't enough describe economic behaviours through the capacity of reaction opposite to environment. Further, the forcaster belongs to his search-system, so that, may be, we must now...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005836791
The numerical example which completes the paper by Goldberqer, Nagar and Odeh, on the estimated asymptotic covariance matrix of the reduced form coefficients for the Klein-I model estimated by Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS), has led to some misinterpretations of the properties of the model. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008548838
In econometric models specified as systems of simultaneous equations, forecast errors can be regarded as random …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008526968
studies of impact and forecast on short or medium term. The study that we have developed by means of the current paper may be …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008536829
variables: the Greek unemployment rate and the FTSE-100 stock index returns. The methodology employed in the effort to forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008470478
This paper introduces and evaluates new models for time series count data. The Autoregressive Conditional Poisson model (ACP) makes it possible to deal with issues of discreteness, overdispersion (variance greater than the mean) and serial correlation. A fully parametric approach is taken and a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005260271
The purpose of this section is to simulate possible policy scenarios and thus predict the CPI over June 2009 to December 2010 for illustrative purposes. The empirical models are based on Loening, Durevall and Birru (2009). Although highly tentative, our scenarios show that inflation will...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008683294
This paper proposes a new structural-break vector autoregressive (VAR) model for predicting real output growth by the nominal yield curve information. We allow for the possibility of both in-sample and out-of-sample breaks in parameter values and use information in historical regimes to make...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008805826