This study examines the impact of macroeconomic variables on stock prices. We use the Databank stock index to represent the stock market and (a) inward foreign direct investments, (b) the treasury bill rate (as a measure of interest rates), (c) the consumer price index (as a measure of...

This paper examines the weak-form efficient market hypothesis (EMH) in the case of the Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE) an emerging market. Daily returns from the Databank Stock Index (DSI) over a 5-year period 1999-2004 were used for the exercise. Random walk (RW) and GARCH(1,1) models are used as...

The discovery of the dynamics of a time series requires construction of the transition density, 1-point densities and scaling exponents provide no knowledge of the dynamics. Time series require some sort of statistical regularity, otherwise there is no basis for analysis. We state the possible...

Episodes of market crashes have fascinated economists for centuries. Although many academics, practitioners and policy makers have studied questions related to collapsing asset price bubbles, there is little consensus yet about their causes and effects. This review and essay evaluates some of...

In a chaotic and confusing place as world of investing is, the practitioners, who operate on markets every day, have continuously searched to forecast properly the market movements. More minded to financial speculations, practitioners analyse financial markets looking for potential weaknesses of...

From the Efficient Market Hypothesis, a market is efficient if security prices fully and correctly reflect all available information that is relevant for the stock’s pricing. This requires a medium of information dissemination and transaction ordering with both speed and accuracy. This paper...

We discuss martingales, detrending data, and the efficient market hypothesis for stochastic processes x(t) with arbitrary diffusion coefficients D(x,t). Beginning with x-independent drift coefficients R(t) we show that Martingale stochastic processes generate uncorrelated, generally...

Groenewold et al (2004a) documented that the Chinese stock market is inefficient. In this paper, we revisit the efficiency problem of the Chinese stock market using time-series model based trading rules. Our paper distinguishes itself from previous studies in several aspects. First, while...

Like all good theories, market efficiency has major limitations, even though it continues to be the source of important and enduring insights. This is a conceptual framework on global financial crisis and Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). Despite the theory’s undoubted limitations, the claim...

The aim of this paper is to propose a new model of bubbles and crashes to elucidate a mechanism of bubbles and subsequent crashes. We consider an asset market in which the risky assets into two classes, the risky asset, and the risk-free asset are traded. Investors are divided into two groups of...