The expectations hypothesis implies that rational investors can predict future changes in interest rates by simply observing the yield spread. According to Mishkin (1990) the expectations theory can also be reformulated in terms of the ability of the spread to predict future inflation....

Predictive regressions are linear specifications linking a noisy variable such as stock returns to past values of a more persistent regressor with the aim of assessing the presence of predictability. Key complications that arise are the potential presence of endogeneity and the poor adequacy of...

A class of nonlinear ARCH processes is introduced and studied. The existence of a strictly stationary and β-mixing solution is established under a mild assumption on the density of the underlying independent process. We give sufficient conditions for the existence of moments. The analysis...

This paper explores how the introduction of deep habits in a standard new-Keynesian model affects the properties of widely used interest rate rules. In particular, an interest rate rule satisfying the Taylor principle is no longer a su±cient condition to guarantee determinacy. Including...

Interest Rate rules are often estimated as simple reaction functions linking the policy interest rate to variables such as (forecasted) inflation and the output gap; however, the coefficients estimated with this approach are convolutions of structural and preference parameters. I propose an...

This paper main theme is that the arguments against the use of money (i.e. money growth rate rules) in the conduct of monetary policy are not so strong, particularly for less developed economies. I analyze this topic in two ways: i) using some simple theoretical forward-looking macro models and...

This paper analyses the dynamic consequences of interest rate feedback rules in a flexible-price model where money enters the utility function. Two alternative rules are considered based on past or predicted inflation rates. The main feature is to consider inflation rates that are selected over...

The paper aims to shed light on the relation between monetary and fiscal policy in EMU, focusing on the interest rates and deficit dynamics. We present a theoretical model in which monetary and fiscal policy independently interact in a closed economic system through their own instrument, namely,...

The Thanksgiving-Christmas holiday period is a major sales period for US retailers. Due to higher store traffic, tasks such as restocking shelves, handling customers’ questions and inquiries, running cash registers, cleaning, and bagging, become more urgent during holidays. As a result, the...

The popular understanding of monetary policy is reviewed. A flaw is uncovered: Changes in the components of "money" have been ignored. Policy has therefore allowed the development of a monetary imbalance. This imbalance may be described as the excessive reliance on credit. The flaw has reduced...