The expectations hypothesis implies that rational investors can predict future changes in interest rates by simply observing the yield spread. According to Mishkin (1990) the expectations theory can also be reformulated in terms of the ability of the spread to predict future inflation....

Predictive regressions are linear specifications linking a noisy variable such as stock returns to past values of a more persistent regressor with the aim of assessing the presence of predictability. Key complications that arise are the potential presence of endogeneity and the poor adequacy of...

A class of nonlinear ARCH processes is introduced and studied. The existence of a strictly stationary and β-mixing solution is established under a mild assumption on the density of the underlying independent process. We give sufficient conditions for the existence of moments. The analysis...

This paper explores how the introduction of deep habits in a standard new-Keynesian model affects the properties of widely used interest rate rules. In particular, an interest rate rule satisfying the Taylor principle is no longer a su±cient condition to guarantee determinacy. Including...

Interest Rate rules are often estimated as simple reaction functions linking the policy interest rate to variables such as (forecasted) inflation and the output gap; however, the coefficients estimated with this approach are convolutions of structural and preference parameters. I propose an...

This paper main theme is that the arguments against the use of money (i.e. money growth rate rules) in the conduct of monetary policy are not so strong, particularly for less developed economies. I analyze this topic in two ways: i) using some simple theoretical forward-looking macro models and...

This paper analyses the dynamic consequences of interest rate feedback rules in a flexible-price model where money enters the utility function. Two alternative rules are considered based on past or predicted inflation rates. The main feature is to consider inflation rates that are selected over...

This paper investigates banking system instability vis-à-vis the day-to-day interbank market and monetary policy effectiveness in the Dominican Republic. The analysis reveals a negative relationship among excess banking system reserves and the interbank interest rate, and shows that in crisis...

This paper explores three areas in which the experience of the Great Depression might be relevant today: monetary policy, fiscal policy and the systemic stability of the banking system. We confirm the consensus on monetary policy: deflation must be avoided. With regard to fiscal policy, the...

The expansionary economic policies of the government and of the central bank (State Bank of Pakistan – SBP), which on one side resulted in impressive economic performance, stimulated a rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on the other. This initiated a debate on the determinants of the...