In Part One of this paper we use the harmonic analogy of a musical octave to analyze mathematic ratios of U.S. real GNP. These ratios are generated by bringing together figures for U.S. real GNP over intervals of time – “spreads of years” – as numerator and denominator in a single...

In the physical world the “identity” of something is taken generally as a given; an apple is an apple; this apple is this apple. When dealing with planetary structure and extension into space, however, the problem of the planet’s “identity” in the surrounding cosmos is writ large. What...

Consider an agent who holds a stock, but is allowed to buy and hold some quantity of at-the-money put options on the stock. Such an agent must decide the optimal use of financial derivatives under trade restrictions. This paper uses simulation to compare the optimal quantity when the agent...

Markov chain theory is proving to be a powerful approach to bootstrap highly nonlinear time series. In this work we provide a method to estimate the memory of a Markov chain (i.e. its order) and to identify its relevant states. In particular the choice of memory lags and the aggregation of...

In the first section we recall Bak Sneppen model and its evolutions. In this paper we wish to present some simplified cases in which explicit computations via Markov chains are possible, hence reaching a better understanding of some rather hidden phenomena of the general case: in particular...

Our goal in this chapter is to explain concretely how to implement simulation methods in a very general class of models that are extremely useful in applied work: dynamic discrete choice models where one has available a panel of multinomial choice histories and partially observed payoffs....

The article examines an approach to the simulation of financial institution behavior (and bank in particular) based upon system dynamics methods. Research results indicate that system dynamics modeling can to further for better understanding of banking troubles hidden causes. Therefore the...

The Two-Stage Least Squares (2-SLS) is a well known econometric technique used to estimate the parameters of a multi-equation (or simultaneous equations) econometric model when errors across the equations are not correlated and the equation(s) concerned is (are) over-identified or exactly...

Portfolio optimisation for a Fund of Hedge Funds (“FoHF”) has to address the asymmetric, non-Gaussian nature of the underlying returns distributions. Furthermore, the objective functions and constraints are not necessarily convex or even smooth. Therefore traditional portfolio optimisation...

Signal waveforms are very fast dampening oscillatory time series composed of exponential functions. The regular least squares fitting techniques are often unstable when used to fit exponential functions to such signal waveforms since such functions are highly correlated. Of late, some attempts...