Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) has been increasingly used by various central banks for assessing the direction and strength of economic activity. One of the sub-indices or component level information provided by PMI is that of industrial input and output prices trends as surveyed...

Exchange rate remains one of the principal determinants of a nation’s external balance and fiscal status of most emerging economies. How better its fluctuation is managed has a long way to go with the performance of major macroeconomic variables in a country. It is behind this backdrop that...

The study aims at investigating, whether or not the cost channel of monetary policy is effective in Pakistan. The cost channel is one of the theoretical justifications of Price Puzzle, a phenomenon that has been observed in a number of empirical studies. Using Structural Vector Autoregression...

As inflation looks forever transactions, while, under the assumption of closed economy and Okun's law, we can consider that the ultimate goal of economic policy is to increase economic growth, about the debate on the suitable foreign exchange regime for Sub-Saharan African economies in the Cfa...

The study critically analyzed the dynamic and simultaneous inter-relationship between inflation and its determinants in Nigeria between 1970 and 2007. The time series variables properties were examined using the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test and the result reveals that inflation...

This paper investigates fundamentals-based exchange rate predictability from a different perspective. We focus on predicting currency swings (major trends in depreciation or appreciation) rather than on quantitative changes of exchange rates. Having used a nonparametric approach to identify...

This paper proposes a measure of real-time inflation expectations based on metadata, i.e., data about data, constructed from internet search queries performed on the search engine Google. The forecasting performance of the Google Inflation Search Index (GISI) is assessed relative to 37 other...

I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the...

This paper considers the application of long memory processes to describe inflation with seasonal behaviour. We use three different long memory models taking into account the seasonal pattern in the data. Namely, the ARFIMA model with deterministic seasonality, the ARFISMA model, and the...

This paper is concerned with univariate noncausal autoregressive models and their potential usefulness in economic applications. In these models, future errors are predictable, indicating that they can be used to empirically approach rational expectations models with nonfundamental solutions. In...