We analyze trends in yield growth and yield variability of barley, maize, oats, rye triticale and wheat in Switzerland from 1961 to 2006. In contrast to linear trends in cereal yield growth that are usually assumed for Europe, cereal yields have leveled off due to widespread extensive cereal...

The Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter is a commonly used method, particularly in potential output studies. However its suitability depends on a number of conditions. Very small open economies do not satisfy these as their macroeconomic series exhibit pronounced trends, large fluctuations and...

Modern economics assumes that in the long run an economy develops in a balanced way, with full employment of resources and a constant inflation rate. The output level thereby achieved is called „potential output‟. Knowing the extent of the output gap, or the deviation from this equilibrium,...

The long and sustained expansion of the nineties has generated, especially in the US, widespread rumours about the “death of the cycle”. Nevertheless, towards the end of the last decade, it became clear that fluctuations of economic activity were far from being extinct. This has contributed...

In this article, three issues relating to leading composite indicators (LCI) are discussed: their importance, methods of estimation and uses by institutions worldwide. This discussion is utilised to provide lessons that could be learnt for the application of these indicators to the countries of...

In this paper we identify a framework of the main macroeconomic indicators an investor must look when investing in a country, depending on his activity business sector. Using a qualitative method of research on the Romanian case in period of 2000-2010, we establish that a series of leading...

The identification of business cycles in India and construction of a composite leading indicator for forecasting the cyclical turning points have been the focus of this study. The cyclical analysis of monthly index of industrial production (IIP) in India applying the Bry-Boschan procedure...

In this paper, we ask whether it is possible to forecast gross-value added (GVA) and its sectoral sub-components at the regional level. We are probably the first who evaluate sectoral forecasts at the regional level using a huge data set at quarterly frequency to investigate this issue. With an...