This paper proposes a measure of real-time inflation expectations based on metadata, i.e., data about data, constructed from internet search queries performed on the search engine Google. The forecasting performance of the Google Inflation Search Index (GISI) is assessed relative to 37 other...

This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

The Department of Finance employs extensively a large macroeconomic model of the Canadian economy -- the QFS model(Quarterly Forecasting and Simulation Model) -- for economic and fiscal forecasting and simulation exercises. As with any large macroeconomic model, and particularly one that plays a...

The present study extends an earlier elasticities-absorption approach to the balance of payments to the analysis of the consequences of tariff reforms on the Egyptian macro-economy, particularly as it relates to fiscal revenue implications. From an analytical perspective, we use the...

his study provides an analysis of the sources of Uzbekistan’s economic growth, the challenges and opportunities for the private sector in those sectors, and policy measures that would support the expansion of the economy. It is specifically intended to provide an analysis of the macroeconomic...

Parallel calculations on modern multiprocessing technics open new opportunities in application of mathematical models for research ekonomy of region. Use of normative models was limited to complexity of their identification due to a lot of unknown parameters. In work the technique of...

Bayesian inference requires an analyst to set priors. Setting the right prior is crucial for precise forecasts. This paper analyzes how optimal prior changes when an economy is hit by a recession. For this task, an autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) model is chosen. The results show that a...

This paper proposes full-Bayes priors for time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VARs) which are more robust and objective than existing choices proposed in the literature. We formulate the priors in a way that they allow for straightforward posterior computation, they require...

We use Bayesian factor regression models to construct a financial conditions index (FCI) for the U.S. Within this context we develop Bayesian model averaging methods that allow the data to select which variables should be included in the FCI or not. We also examine the importance of different...

This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...