This volume – Predicting Crisis: Five Essays on the Mathematic Prediction of Economic and Social Crises – is the first of three sets of essays. In this first set the economic and social history of the United States is shown to be a “system of movement,” i.e. a logical and mathematic...

The Black Scholes Model (BSM) is one of the most important concepts in modern financial theory both in terms of approach and applicability. The BSM is considered the standard model for valuing options; a model of price variation over time of financial instruments such as stocks that can, among...

This document analyzes the changes that suffer the amounts demanded of a good, due to changes in its price. For this we use the decomposition in Income and Substitution effects posed by Slutsky and Hicks in their work concerning the analysis of the demand. In general, when the price of a good...

The formation of the European Union (EU) is the one of the biggest political – economic events of the last 50 years. The aim of this study is to develop EU economy functioning system dynamic model. Main research method is system dynamics. General scheme of EU economy system dynamic model is...

We introduce a “reason-based” way of rationalizing an agent’s choice behaviour, which explains choices by specifying which properties of the options or choice context the agent cares about (the “motivationally salient properties”) and how he or she cares about these properties (the...

Presented is an evolutionary model of consumer non-durable markets, which is an extension of a previously published paper on consumer durables. The model suggests that the repurchase process is governed by preferential growth. Applying statistical methods it can be shown that in a competitive...

This paper characterizes different belief revision rules in a unified framework: Bayesian revision upon learning some event, Jeffrey revision upon learning new probabilities of some events, Adams revision upon learning some new conditional probabilities, and `dual-Jeffrey' revision upon learning...

In most of the Intermediate Microeconomics or Microeconomic Theory texts, when the demand of individuals subject is analyzed, especially the Price-Consumption paths and Income-Expansion paths , Examples are presented in which the utility functions correspond to regular preferences, that is, the...

In this paper I develop a theoretical model to analyze policy that restricts who can own land. I briefly review research related to such policy in Saskatchewan, Canada, and identify a standard supply-demand model that I extend in several ways. First, I replicate results for how policy affects...